Wednesday, 17 July 2019

Ipsos/Global News: CPC 37, LPC 31, NDP 18, GPC 7, BQ 5

A new Ipsos/Global News poll has been published this morning, and it shows that voting intentions in Canada have remained stable in the last month - contrary to the general trend detected by other Canadian pollsters in the same time period.

The full tables have not yet been released (I expect they will in the next day or so), but here is the article from Global News. (I must warn you: this article is a somewhat confusing. It goes from party standings to leader's approval numbers back and forth and throws a bunch or regional and demographic numbers in what looks like random order).

Here are the results at the national level:



Every party is stable compared to Ipsos' previous poll back in June. The main difference is that the Greens and the PPC were included this time (which explains the +7 for the Greens).

While it is not surprising to see Ipsos give the Conservatives the lead (CPC has led every Ipsos poll since February, even by a ten-point margin back in March), it is strange that Ipsos has not seen the gap narrowed one bit like other pollsters.

The most header-scratching data however is that fact that Ipsos has the Conservatives leading among women. This is highly inconsistent - even Angus Reid latest poll, which has similar overall numbers to Ipsos - has the Liberals leading among women.

Nevertheless, the regional numbers that were presented in the article are all within current ranges, with the notable exception of Ontario - where Ipsos has the CPC ahead by 6 points.

Still, as I wrote yesterday: "We have to look at the movement of the tide, not just the water level... and not overreact."

We add this one to the pile and carry on.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 16 July 2019

Look at the Tide Movement, Not Just the Water Level

At the end of the latest 338 federal projection published on Sunday, I wrote: "As we enter the middle of summer, Canadian pollsters will probably take a much-needed break before the fall campaign".

This may have been just a little bit of wishful thinking on my part.

Five new federal polls, yes five, were published in the last 24 hours from five different polling firms: Angus Reid, Nanos, Campaign Research, Innovative Research, and EKOS.

The full tables for Innovative and EKOS have not been made public just yet, so we will hold on to these two for now, but let's take a quick look at the other three.


(All federal polls are listed on this page.)


Nanos Research



The Nanos weekly tracker has been updated and it doubles down on the Liberal-comeback narrative. The LPC leads the way with 36% of voting intentions, up six points from the middle of June. The Conservatives, which Nanos measured as high as 36% last May, lose four points in the past four weeks and stand at 30% nationally.



The New Democratic Party climbs again this week according to Nanos and now stands at 19% - which is somewhat higher than the current polling average for Jagmeet Singh's party.



Angus Reid Institute


The Angus Reid Institute had the Conservatives with a 13-point lead in May, and an 11-point lead in June. Its latest poll still has the Conservatives ahead, but the gap has been closing to 8 points. The CPC leads with 38% and the Liberals come second with 30%. (See Angus Reid report here.)





Campaign Research


Finally, Campaign Research has a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with 33% and 32% of national support, respectively. The most notable movement in this poll compared to Campaign's previous poll in June is the Conservatives shedding three points.




What are we to make of all there numbers? Whereas Campaign Research's numbers align closely with the current 338 weighted average, Nanos' and Angus Reid's numbers diverge significantly.

Taken alone, Nanos' numbers would probably mean a strong minority or even perhaps a majority for the Liberals.

Taken alone, Angus Reid's would assuredly lead to the Conservative winning the most seats, although perhaps not enough for a majority.

However, if we look at the movement detected by these polls and not just the raw numbers, we all have the same tendency: a tightening race.

I published in May a brief meta-analysis of Canadian polls from the past three years, as well as those just before the 2015 federal election (which you can find here). While Nanos tends to very modestly lean liberal compared to the overall polling average, it was near perfect in its final 2015 poll. On the other hand, Angus Reid has had the Liberals much lower than other pollsters on average in the past three years, and had also underestimated the Liberals by almost five points in 2015. I do not, and I repeat, do not dismiss Angus Reid, but every polling firm occasionally displays a "House Effect"*. Angus Reid is no exception.

*Displaying a house effect does not mean the skew is intentional. Whatever the narrative you want to believe: no, it's not a conspiracy.

Again, remember: we have to look at the movement of the tide, not just the water level.

And not give too much weight to a single poll.

And not overreact.

* * *

All these numbers will be added to the model for this Sunday's 338 update. Have a great week, and thank you for supporting 338Canada.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 14 July 2019

338Canada Federal Projection Update: All Bets Are Off

Fresh new data was published last week, and it should certainly concern conservative strategists, as it appears that the Liberal slump from the SNC-Lavalin story and the CPC as the election-favourite narrative have all but vanished.

Read this article on Maclean's.ca

(The graph above depicts this week's projection with the latest national polls; MS: Mainstreet; NR: Nanos Research.)


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 9 July 2019

Mainstreet Research: Liberals 35, Conservatives 33, NDP 10, Greens 10

Who said politics takes a break in July?

Mainstreet Research has published its latest poll on iPolitics on Tuesday. Mainstreet had not been on the field since late March, near the zenith of the SNC-Lavalin story that engulfed Canadian media for most of the winter/spring.

This new poll has a sample size of 2,651 respondents and was on the field from June 28th to July 2nd 2019. Let's take a look at the national figures:



The Liberals lead the way with 35%, a level of support similar to what Nanos published Tuesday morning. According to Mainstreet, the Liberals remain stable compared to their March number.

The biggest slide goes to the Conservatives, falling to 33% nationally  - but especially (again) in Ontario where they trail the Liberals by 10 points.

However, considering the poll's margin of error, this 2-point lead for the Liberals on the national level means we have a statistical tie between the LPC and the CPC.

A more in-depth analysis will be published later this week, but simply stated: there is no path to victory for Andrew Scheer if the Conservatives are 10 points behind the Liberals in Ontario. None.

As for Quebec, Mainstreet measures the Conservative at 22%, a result more inline with what other pollsters outside of Nanos have picked up lately.

British Columbia continues to be a mystery. According to Mainstreet, the Conservatives lead with 31%, the Liberals follow with 26%, and the Greens with 22%.

The NDP is far, and I do mean far, behind its regular numbers, with only 10% nationally - 9% in Quebec, 12% in Ontario, and a dismal 14% in B.C.

More to come later this week. Stay tuned.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Nanos July 5th 2019: LPC 35, CPC 30, NDP 18, Greens 9

In the latest 338 federal projection published in Maclean's, I wrote "After a disastrous winter and spring, the Liberals may be creeping back into contention."

Last week, the Nanos weekly tracker had the Liberals in front for the first time since February. I wrote: "More fresh data should come out this week. Is this week's Nanos an outlier? It's possible. We will know soon."

The Nanos tracker was updated a few hours ago, and the Liberal lead has widened:


[Nanos is a four-week tracker. To avoid duplication of data we compare this week's numbers to those from 4 weeks ago.]

A more complete analysis will be needed to understand what's going on here, but it may be that Green leaning voters are tempted to go back to the Liberal fold. The Bloc, NDP and PPC are all relatively stable.

Regionally, the Liberals lead by 9 points in Ontario.

In Quebec, the Liberals still lead, but with less than a third of support.

We have a statistical tie in the Atlantic provinces. Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta.

In B.C., there is a three-way race at the top.

More to come this week.

* * *

The map of the 338 Projection was updated Sunday and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 7 July 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Back to Square One

It's July in Canada, so it's time for BBQ's, pool parties, Festival d'Été de Québec, Festival de Jazz de Montréal, the Calgary Stampede, and so, so much more.

But politics, four months before a general election, does not take a summer break.


Read this article on Macleans.ca.


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 6 July 2019

Abacus Data: CPC 33, LPC 32, NDP 16

The Ottawa-based firm Abacus Data released its latest federal horserace numbers this morning, and recent trends detected by the nation's pollsters seem to converge somewhat - at least more than they did during the spring.

Earlier this week, we saw DART measuring the Conservatives ahead by four points, but trailing in Ontario. On Tuesday, Nanos updated its weekly tracker and had the Liberals ahead for the first time since the SNC-Lavalin saga began in February. (All federal polls are listed here.) While Nanos' Liberal number seemed on the higher end of the poll average, the Liberal "recovery" appears to be real - even though, we must point out, the Conservatives are still ahead on the aggregate.

Here are Abacus Data's national numbers published this morning:



The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie, with the CPC at 33% and the Liberals, 32%. Support for all main parties remains generally stable compared to Abacus' late May numbers.

Because Abacus' sample size is rather large, the regional breakdown does not make the margin of error (or rather, the uncertainty) explode to unreasonable levels. Let's take a look:

  • In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals hold a ten-point lead over the Conservatives (39%-29%). As other pollsters have measured in the past months, the Greens have caught up to the NDP in third place. Although with 15% support in the region, it remains unsure whether the Greens can actually gain new seats. Fredericton may be the most probable Green seat, along with Charlottetown
  • In Quebec, the modest Conservative surge detected a few weeks ago seems to hold up. Abacus has the CPC at 24% in the province, which would be the highest score for federal conservatives since 2006 should it materialize in October. The Liberals still lead in Quebec with 33% of support. The Bloc is at 16%, the Greens at 14% and, this is not a typo, the NDP at a dismal 8%.
  • In Ontario, Abacus has a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with 34% apiece. Last week, both Forum Research and EKOS measured the Liberals ahead in Ontario (same with Nanos earlier this week), so it seems there is some level of disagreement here.
  • In the Prairies (MB/SK), the Conservatives hold a 14-point lead over the Liberals (40%-26%), which is consistent with current data.
  • In Alberta, unsurprisingly the Conservative hold a massive lead over their rivals with 53% of support, which is on the low end for the CPC in Alberta: other recent polls have measured the Conservatives as high as 60% or even 65%.
  • In British Columbia, the Liberals stand at 32% according to Abacus, the Conservatives 27% and the NDP 23% (the highest NDP score in this poll). The Greens have 15% support. 


And so we have fresh data to update the 338Canada projection tomorrow. It should be published in late afternoon, eastern time.

Enjoy the weekend, and thanks again for supporting this page.


* * *

Here is Abacus Data's full report on the poll. There is a breakdown of voting intention according to age and education levels. It also contains interesting data regarding levels of support for federal party leaders and, as a bonus, Doug Ford.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 2 July 2019

Nanos Has Liberals Back on Top: LPC 35, CPC 32, NDP 17, Greens 10

The Nanos weekly tracker was updated this morning and it shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives nationally for the first time since the February SNC-Lavalin story. The tracker is a rolling poll that adds a sample of 250 respondents per week for 4 weeks. Every week, the four week old sample is replaced by fresh data, so today's numbers span the four weeks of June (June 7th to 28th 2019).

Here are the numbers:



The Liberals gained six points in June compared to May, and retake the lead over the CPC. The Bloc and NDP are mostly stable, while the Conservatives and Greens lose two points apiece. The poll's results are available here.

The biggest swing is in Ontario, where the Liberals have taken an eight point lead (41-33) according to Nanos. This trend in Ontario was also picked up by EKOS, whose latest numbers in the province had the Liberals ahead by seven points (details here). Nanos' regional breakdown can be found here.

More fresh data should come out this week. Is this week's Nanos an outlier? It's possible. We will know soon.

Sunday's update should be interesting. (Here is the latest 338Canada projection.)





Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.