Sunday, 16 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Conservatives Enter Summer As Favourites

The House of Commons will soon adjourn for a summer break that will last until the writ is drawn up in late August or early September. Unless some major and unexpected event occurs, Canadians will head to the polls on October 21st to choose the MPs of the 43rd federal legislature.

There were six new federal polls published in the past seven days. Early last week, Campaign Research (CR), Nanos Research, the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) and Forum Research all released their most recent numbers. Aside from ARI which had the Conservatives with a comfortable 11-point lead over the Liberals, all of these polls showed a fairly close race with the CPC's lead in the 3-4 point range. Then on Friday came two new polls from Ipsos/Global News and Léger/CP whose overall numbers looked quite similar at first (Conservatives leading by 6 and 9 points, respectively), but whose regional breakdown were all over the place.

Read this column on Maclean's website.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 14 June 2019

Is It Summer Yet? New Polls From Léger/CP and Ipsos/Global News

Two new polls this morning (which bring this week's total to six!) from Léger/The Canadian Press and Ipsos/Global News.

Without going into the regional details (it'll come soon), let's take a look at the overall numbers from each.

First, Ipsos/Global News has the Conservatives 6 points ahead of the Liberals:

It is strange that Ipsos still does not include the Green Party in its polls. In The Global News article, they justify this decision as such:

"We have found that, historically, prompting the Green Party as a response option in online polls tends to exaggerate their level of support,” said Sean Simpson, vice president of Ipsos Public Affairs.
"This is because the Green Party will often be chosen by poll respondents who either don’t like any of the other options and are looking for a protest response and/or won’t actually vote on election day." - Global News, June 14th 2019


Secondly, Léger/CP released its own numbers and they also measured a tightening Conservative lead:




The regional numbers from Léger are similar to Angus Reid earlier this week, but there are still major disagreement among the flurry of polls published this week.

More on this on Sunday with a full 338Canada federal update. Expect the overall uncertainty to significantly increase.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 12 June 2019

Feeling Lost With This Week's Polls? Here's Some Help

With Forum Research publishing its latest poll numbers this morning, we now have four new polls published since last Sunday's 338 Federal projection update.

Let's take a quick look at those polls, and see where the last 338's projection stands compared to those polls.

(The complete list of federal polls is available here.)


Angus Reid Institute


The Angus Reid Institute released its numbers on Monday and they showed the Conservatives lead the Liberals by double digits.


With such numbers, the Conservatives would assuredly win a majority government.

However, this poll is a head-scratcher, especially its Quebec numbers where the Conservatives are measured in first place at 28% and the Liberals second with 26%. No other polling firm has the Conservatives in the lead in Quebec. On average in the past six months, the LPC has polled about 10-15 higher in Quebec than the Conservatives. This has "outlier" written all over it.

The other regional numbers look within the current margins though, so it would be unreasonable to just toss this poll out. Naturally, because Quebec is about 24% of Canada's population, having Quebec numbers so off compared to others will affect Angus Reid national numbers.



Campaign Research


On Sunday night, Campaign Research published its new poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by three points over the Liberals.


These numbers are fairly constant compared to when Campaign was last on the field (late April). The biggest shift is one we have seen from other pollsters: the Greens are slowly catching up to the NDP.




Forum Research


After measuring double-digit leads for the Conservatives for the better part of 2018, Forum's new numbers also show a tightening race between the Conservatives and Liberals. The Greens and NDP are tied nationally with 13% apiece.





Nanos Research


Finally, the Nanos Weekly Tracker also has the Conservatives ahead by three points over the Liberals. Nanos still has the NDP comfortably in third place.




In Conclusion



So many polls can be confusing for the uninitiated. Even political journalists can sometimes feel overwhelmed with so much data - and some of it contradictory.

Well, that's why 338Canada is here. Here are the four polls presented above with the numbers from last Sunday's projection:



Click the image to enlarge.


If there were any doubt left that Angus Reid appears to underestimate the Liberals, this graph should help.

Again, while it is not impossible that Angus Reid is correct and that every other polling firm is wrong, it is certainly not the most likely scenario.

That's why one should trust the weighted average more than any single poll, and that, above all, a political poll should always be presented with context - something several media outlets did not do when they published Angus Reid earlier this week.

Yes, La Presse, I am looking at you.

A full 338 update will be published on Sunday, as per usual.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 9 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: June 9th 2019

We add these new polls to the 338 federal model this week:


The complete list of federal polls is available here. Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for June 9th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection






Seat Projection





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model). The CPC wins a majority of seats in 25% of simulations.





Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Only 134 days until the federal election...

Have a great weekend!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Thursday, 6 June 2019

Mainstreet Research/338Canada Poll of Markham-Stouffville

This poll was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was commissioned by 338Canada.com. Mainstreet was on the field from May 29th to 30th 2019 and, using IVR technology, it collected voting intentions of 601 voters residing in the Markham-Stouffville district. This is a probabilistic sample with a margin of error of ±4%.

Here is 338's analysis published by Maclean's.

Here is the poll's full report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.






Monday, 3 June 2019

Exclusive Mainstreet Research/338Canada Poll: Jody WIlson-Raybould Leads in Vancouver Granville

This poll was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was commissioned by 338Canada.com. Mainstreet was on the field from May 29th to 30th 2019 and, using IVR technology, it collected voting intentions of 418 voters residing in the Vancouver Granville district. This is a probabilistic sample with a margin of error of ±5%.

Here is 338's analysis published by Maclean's.

Here is the poll's full report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 2 June 2019

338Canada Federal Projection Update: June 2nd 2019

We add two new polls to the 338 federal model this week: the Nanos weekly update, as well as Abacus Data's fresh new numbers unveiled yesterday.

The model was adjusted to include new independent candidates Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. Some other minor and routine tweaks were also made to the model.
Here is the 338 Federal Update for June 2nd 2019. The full list of polls can be found on this page.

Seat Projection





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model).




Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Only 141 days until the federal election... We should see a flurry of new polls before the start of the summer break.

Have a great weekend!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.