A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute was published this morning, and it is surely going to move the needle on Sunday's 338 projection.
Some of its numbers are slightly outside the current margins, but they all converge towards the same trends: the left of centre coalition is splintering. And we know what scenario it usually leads to.
The poll was on the field from April 26th to 30th 2019, and was conducted from an internet panel of 1,535 Canadian voters.
Here are the results of leaning and decided voters:
The Conservatives lead the way with 38%, which is not unsurprising for those who have been following the numbers in the past weeks. However, it is the Liberal support that strikes the eye: 25%. This is a significant drop for Justin Trudeau. Earlier this week, a Léger poll for the Canadian Press had the Liberals at 27% and it looked at first as an outlier. It looks like it wasn't.
According to this poll, the LPC has dropped significantly in the Atlantic Provinces (although we should be wary of the small subsample size), Quebec and British Columbia. Under no scenario, with these numbers, could the Liberals hold on to power. This indeed would translate into a Conservative majority.
Notice also the Green Party of Canada at 11% nationally. The regional breakdown of the poll shows the Greens in double digits in every region of the country, except Alberta. Obviously, this is not yet a "Green wave", but the support for the GPC has been steadily climbing in the projection in the past months. We will have to keep an eye out for those numbers.
A full 338 Federal Projection update will be out Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned.
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.