Sunday, 7 April 2019

338Canada Federal Update for April 7th 2019

Will the SNC-Lavallin story/saga/scandal - depending on one's perspective - finally come to an end for the Liberals? Whatever one's opinion on the matter, and there sure has been a wide spectrum of takes that have been said and written by now, one simple fact we can take from the last two months is this: it hurt Justin Trudeau in the polls in every region of Canada - yes, even Quebec.

That being said, Conservatives have not exactly been able to distance themselves as much as they surely would have wanted. Polls of the last few weeks have ranged from a nine to ten point CPC lead (Ipsos, Angus Reid) to a statistical tie (Mainstreet, Nanos). And the general election is still 197 days away.

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In addition to the regular model adjustments and fine tuning, we add two polls to the 338 Federal Projection this week:
  • Mainstreet Research federal "UltraPoll" (which was published last Sunday, but too late for last week's projection): CPC 37, LPC 35, NDP 12, GPC 8,, PPC 4, BQ 3;
  • Weekly Nanos tracker update: CPC 35, LPC 35, NDP 17, GPC 8, BQ 4, PPC 1;

Here is the 338 Federal Projection Update for April 7th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection



The Conservative Party of Canada is leading the popular vote projection again this week with an average support of 36.6%. The national figures of both new polls were within less than a point from last week's average, so the CPC projection remains stable this week.


The Liberal Party of Canada, after eight consecutive weeks of losing support, seems to have stopped the bleeding and stands at 32.0%. No polls whose field date came after the firing of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott have yet been published, so next week's numbers should be interesting. Have Canadian voters tuned this story out or has that cloud not been lifted on the LPC just yet? We'll know soon enough.

The New Democratic Party's average stands at 15.3% nationally. Unfortunately for Jagmeet Singh, his by-election win appears to not have boosted his party's voting intentions. Of course, he himself cannot be blamed for getting elected in the middle of the worst crisis of Justin Trudeau's reign so far.

Here are the popular vote projection with 95% confidence intervals:



Here is the progression of the 338 federal popular vote projection since last fall:







Seat Projection


Once again this week, the Conservative Party of Canada leads the seat projection with an average of 168 seats, just barely below the majority threshold of 170 seats:



The Liberal Party of Canada climbs modestly this week to an average of 128 seats. It is worth noting that around 110 of those 128 seats are located east of the Manitoba-Ontario border. See all 338 district projections here.

The NDP wins an average of 26 seats per simulation, still far from its 2015 total of 44 seats.

The Bloc québécois holds steady  at an average of 12 seats, the Green Party 3 (all on Vancouver Island) and PPC, 1 (Beauce).



The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The 338Canada model performed 250k general election simulations using the electoral history of districts, the demographic profile of voters per district and opinion polls published in the last weeks (the polls are all listed on this page). After tallying the results, the Conservative Party of Canada wins the most seats in 80.7% of all simulations, or about four in five simulations. Moreover, the CPC wins over 170 seats in 47.7% of simulations.



The Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in 18.7% of simulations. There is a tie between the LPC and the CPC in 0,6% of simulations.






Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.





Use this list to find your federal electoral district:


As usual the 338 Federal Projection will be updated next Sunday. In the meantime, I invite you to check out the 338 Alberta page. The 30th Alberta general election will be held on April 16th... less than ten days away!

Have a great week, and thank you for supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.