Monday, 8 April 2019

338 NHL Playoffs Odds: And the Cup Favourite Is...

The Tampa Bay Lightning, but you already knew that.

I hope readers of this blog will allow me to write something a little lighter than politics and election projections. See, I ran the 338 Hockey projection since New Year's Day, and the results have been encouraging - the model correctly called 56% (365 of 649) of all games since. So I thought I could write an NHL playoff simulator using the same basic parameters.

Here are the 338 Hockey Projections for the first round:



These odds will of course be updated on the 338 Playoffs page after every playoff game.

Here are first round match-ups (click on the links to access the odds):



How do the Canadian teams fare according to the 338 Playoff simulator?

First, the Toronto Maple Leafs are big underdogs against the Boston Bruins:


Boston wins 57.6% of all simulations. The most likely scenario is Boston in 6 (18.6%).



Secondly, the Winnipeg Jets are in a toss up series against the St.Louis Blues, with the BLues holding a slight edge (52.2%)


The most likely scenario is Blues in 6 (17.7%), and the second most likely outcome is Jets in 7. It should be a fun series!


Finally, the Calgary Flames are heavy favourites against the Colorado Avalanche. Calgary wins 66.2% of simulations, or about two thirds.



The most likely outcome of this series? Flames in 5 (19.3%).


For what it's worth, the playoff simulator runs all four rounds for every simulation... and here are the Stanley Cup odds at the starting line of the 2019 NHL Playoffs:



If you are shocked to see the Maple Leafs at only 3.0% odds of winning the Cup, it is not because they are a bad team, but rather because they have by far the toughest road to the final. Look who are the current Cup favourites: #1 is Tampa Bay, which would most likely be the Leafs' second opponent - that is only if Toronto can beat #3 Boston in the opening round!

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I will update these daily once the playoffs begin. Enjoy!


Ok, back to politics now.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.