Monday, 29 April 2019

The Green Democrats?

Here is an interesting exercise of politics-fiction. What if the NDP and Green Party decided that they have more in common then have differences? With the recent success of the PC and Wildrose merger Alberta, would it be so unreasonable to imagine what a Green Party-NDP merger could look like?

Let's call them the Green Democrats.

Read this article on Maclean's magazine website.





Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 28 April 2019

338 Federal Projection Update, April 28th 2019

First, please allow me some personal news: I have received an offer to join Maclean's magazine for the coverage of the federal election. I am over the moon.

What does it mean for this blog? Well, nothing changes. I will continue to update the federal projection every Sunday. The 338Canada website remains independent, but in addition to my columns in French in L'actualité magazine (which you can find here), I will also provide occasional content in English for Maclean's.

And I have you to thank, dear readers of this blog. Your support is very much appreciated.

* * *

We add three new polls to the 338 federal electoral model this week:
  • Innovative Research (Ontario only) shows the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie, with the Grits slightly ahead in Ontario;
  • The Nanos weekly tracker has the Conservatives ahead by 3 points nationally (with the Liberals and CPC tied in Ontario); 
  • Ipsos/Global News measures the CPC four points ahead of the LPC, but that lead was 10 points a month ago, so the race has tightened up significantly according to Ipsos;


Here is the 338 Federal Update for April 28th 2019. The full list of polls can be found on this page.


Popular Vote Projection

The polls published this week showed numbers that were already in line with last week's projection, so this is very little movement in this week's numbers:






Seat Projection

The Conservatives are still projected ahead in the seat projection, but the confidence intervals overlap significantly with those of the Liberals:



Here are the seat projection probability densities for the main parties:










The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats

The tightening of the race is most apparent in the odds to win the most seats. According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives are merely 2-to-1 favourites to win the election.




Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.




Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Have a great week.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 23 April 2019

PEI 2019: Comparison of Seat Projection With Election Results

As of 22h00 eastern time, here is a quick comparison of the PEI election results with the vote and seat projections from earlier this evening (when the Leafs were still in the playoffs).

Popular vote wise, the pollsters underestimated the PC vote and overestimated the Greens, but the results are still within the model's confidence intervals:





Seat wise, with the Green overestimated in the polls, they lost a few close races that they could have won with a few more points on the Island. Assuming the Greens with the by-election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park (where the Greens are favoured), here is the seat projection compared to the 9 seat result:




Since the PC won a greater share of the vote than expected, so the PC seat total is just over its seat projection:



Finally, the Liberals won 6 seats. Its seat projection average was 4.




Since I strongly doubt the Liberals will want to prop up the Greens, we are in for a PC led minority government in PEI. On average, minority governments in Canada last about 18 months. We'll see whether the 66th PEI Legislative Assembly can manage to last that long.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Last Minute P.E.I. Update

There was a last minute PEI poll night published last night by Forum Research, which naturally had not been included in the projection I wrote for Maclean's.

I just wanted to update this projection before the night was out, but also wanted to wait - out of respect for PEI voters - until the polls closed to publish it.


Popular Vote Projection







Seat projection















Thank you and have a great evening!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 21 April 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: CPC 161, LPC 136, NDP 24, BQ 12

The Alberta general election is now behind us. The final results (including all advance ballots) were published Friday. A full post-mortem will be published in the next few weeks, but at first glance the 338 electoral model performed generally well, even tough many polls missed the mark somewhat by underestimating Jason Kenney's United Conservatives. Nevertheless, the model correctly identified the winner in 82 of 87 districts, and three more were within the confidence intervals.

Many readers have asked whether there will be a 338 P.E.I model, the answer is this: a P.E.I projection from 338 can be found here. The PEI election will be held this Tuesday, April 23rd. Unfortunately, the timing of the PEI election made it impossible to have a regular tracker as was the case for Alberta, Quebec and Ontario. Moreover, data on the PEI election is scarce, so a full model would certainly be riddled with uncertainty.


As per every Sunday, we update the federal projections for all 338 districts. Three new polls were published in the past seven days: Forum Research, Innovative Research and Nanos.



The full list of polls can be found on this page.

Here is the 338 Federal Update for April 14th 2019.



Popular Vote Projection


Two of three polls published last week show diverging numbers to say the least. Forum Research measured the Conservatives with a 13 point lead. Innovative Research had the Liberals leading by 4 points. Which ones is closer to the mark? Innovative's numbers have leaned towards the LPC since the start of 2019, but by a much smaller gap than Forum's tilt towards the CPC (Forum has had the CPC leading in all of 2018, sometimes by double digits. Between February and March, in the middle ofthe SNC-Lavallin affair, Forum showed the Liberals gaining ground on the Conservatives, again going against the tide compared to other pollsters).

Bias? Incompetence? Propaganda?

No. Sometimes polls disagree, and that's why you need sites like this one.

Here are this week's averages. The Conservative Party of Canada are still leading the Liberals by an average of three points. Its average stands at 35.7%.



Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals. The tightening has been incremental, but the LPC and CPC confidence intervals now overlap significantly.





Seat Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada wins an average of 161 seats per simulation, short of the 170 seat threshold in about two thirds of simulations.


The Conservatives trail the Liberals in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. There is a statistical tie between the CPC and LPC in Ontario. West of Ontario, Conservatives lead voting intentions in every province, although British Columbia is still a very close race.

The Liberal Party of Canada wins an average of 136 seats. Most of those seats are located in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario. The Liberals are also projected ahead in Winnipeg and parts of the Lower Mainland in BC.

Here are the seat projection probability densities for the CPC and LPC:



The New Democratic Party is currently projected at an average of 24 seats. It is virtually shut out of the Atlantic provinces, has minimal support in Quebec (where it won 16 seats in 2015), in the Prairies and in Alberta. Most projected NDP seats are found in Ontario (notably in Hamilton, Windsor and Northern Ontario) and BC (mostly Vancouver and Vancouver Island).



In Quebec, the Bloc québécois is holding steady with projected seats mostly in the eastern tip of Montreal and in the 450 area (suburbs of Montreal).





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With this level of support, the Conservatives win the most seats in about seven of every ten simulations (or 69.1%). The odds of a Conservative majority currently stands at 35.8%.



The Liberals win the most seats in the remaining three out of ten simulations (30.1%). The CPC and LCP are tied for the most seats in 0.8% of simulations.

Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.




Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Have a great week, and thank you for supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 17 April 2019

97.7%

Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party of Alberta won a decisive victory in the 30th Alberta general election last night.

A detailled post-mortem of the election will be available soon - obviously, we first need to wait for the final results, including all the advance votes that were cast prior to election day.

Overall it looks as though the UCP has been underestimated by pollsters, even though the polling average will fall within the final projection's confidence intervals. Some polls were off, some polls were close. That's why the weighted polling average is usually a safe bet.

Consequently, many riding projections also underestimated the UCP, although, as you will see below, the overall record is highly satisfactory.

Out of 87 districts, the 338 electoral model correctly identified the winner in 82 of them.


Out of the other 5 districts, the winner was within the confidence intervals in three of them. Those are Calgary-Curie, Calgary-Elbow and Edmonton-South.

Only two districts were complete misses. Those are Calgary-McCall and Calgary-Mountain-View (where the Liberal vote completely collapsed and pushed the NDP in first place).

So the winner was correctly called or was within the confidence intervals in 85 of 87 districts (97.7%).


More number crunching soon. I'll wait for the full results. In the meantime, I'll take a few much needed naps.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Monday, 15 April 2019

Final 338 Alberta Projection: Available Data Points to UCP Majority

[edit: see here how the projection fared]

This is the final 338 Alberta Projection.

I'm tired.

But I have learned so much.

I am a Montrealer who has been to Alberta exactly five times in my life. I have visited Calgary, Edmonton, Banff, Jasper and Lake Louise. And I have stopped for gas in Red Deer.

That's not much, some would say. I know.

But what struck me most about the Albertans I met was how nice and friendly they were.

(No, those who write Facebook comments are not a representative sample of the population. Not in Alberta, not anywhere.)

It makes me want to go back once more. I am pretty sure I will. Soon.

I loved their local beer. And the landscape, my god, the landscape.

Here are the final 338 numbers for Alberta.

Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party is on track to win the popular vote by 8 to 12 point margin. In the last polls published this afternoon, the gap between the UCP and the NDP has ranged from 6 points (Pollara) to 14 points (Léger). The weighted average for the UCP stands at 48.9%, a drop of two points since the start of the campaign.



Rachel's Notley's NDP ends this feisty campaign on a positive note, with an average of 38.5%, which is 6 points higher than when the writ was drawn up a month ago. If those numbers end up accurate, the NDP will suffer a somewhat "honorable loss" by capturing a share of the vote very close to its 2015 result.

The Alberta Party stands at an average of 7.2%.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:




Seat Projection


The United Conservative Party is on track to win a majority government. By breaking down the numbers per region and per riding, the UCP averages 60.2 seats per simulation performed by the 338 electoral model. This seat average still puts the UCP well above the majority threshold of 44 seats at the LAA.



The NDP's seat average stands at 26.1. Unsurprisingly, most of those seats will be in and around Edmonton. The NDP could win additional seats in Calgary if it gets its vote out tomorrow, but it probably won't be enough to beat the United conservatives

Here are the seat projection probability densities:






Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the UCP wins the most seats in about twenty-four of of twenty-five simulations (96.2%).



The NDP wins the most seats in only 3.2% of simulations, so the UCP is still, as of this morning, considered a strong favourite to win the election.

The UCP and NDP are tied for the most seats in 0.6% of simulations.


Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:


Find the complete interactive map of this projection here.



In Conclusion


[Excerpt from the following was published by Maclean's earlier today.]

Opinion polls are scientific experiments. However, unlike the cases of stars or electrons, the subjects of these experiments are human beings who have varying moods and may hold contradicting opinions. After all, humans beings are far more complex and mysterious than stars or electrons, which makes the study of their behaviour all the more uncertain.

As a scientist whose career it is to teach the scientific method to young adults, I created the Qc125 and 338Canada models with the scientific method in mind. René Descartes' rules for acquiring knowledge may date back to almost four hundred years, but they still ring true today: don't judge without proper evidence, don't judge based on preconceived ideas, and don't let your judgement go beyond the evidence. While it is true that polls contain uncertainty, when conducted properly, polls also hold precious information about the mood of voters. As a rule, the 338 model sees a poll as but a tiny piece of a giant puzzle, and it is only by assembling these pieces together that we may fully understand the big picture.

And the data collected and made available about Albertan voters this spring is abundantly clear: Jason Kenney will most likely become the 18th Premier of Alberta. Moreover, since the likelihood of third parties winning more than one or two seats is slim, the odds of a majority government are overwhelming.

Does Rachel Notley have a path to victory?

The answer to that question is simple: Yes, she does, but the data would have to be wrong. The NDP would have to sweep Edmonton (which is likely), gain at least three quarters of Calgary seats (which is not), and win pockets of districts in smaller cities such as Lethbridge and Red Deer.

Polling data is right more often than it is wrong the same way meteorologists, in the long run, get their forecasts right more often than not. But the Alberta polling miss of 2012 still hovers over forecasters' minds.

Polls may capture the general mood of an electorate, but they do not cast votes. Only voters do. We shall see which party Albertan voters will have chosen tomorrow to lead their government for the next four years.


Thanks to all readers of this page. I couldn't have done it without your support. 

Time to crack open a cold one. Go Flames. Boo Leafs.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Final Alberta Numbers Coming Today (and Tonight)

There will be a flurry of new and final Alberta polls today. I will report them later this afternoon and will update the model until (very) late tonight (midnight eastern time).

Already, here is Ipsos/Global News.

Late last night, Nanos published its numbers here.

A Léger poll should also come forth today.

Tomorrow, on voting day, this site will remain silent until polls close and votes are being counted - to respect the spirit of electoral law.

Stay tuned.

Here are the latest 338 numbers and the updated map.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 14 April 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: CPC 165, LPC 130, NDP 26

I hope regular readers of the blog will forgive the brevity of this post. The Alberta election comes down to the wire this week and my mind is fully on getting the Alberta projection and analysis right. Therefore I present you the main graphs of this update without analysis.

For those interested, here is the 338 Alberta page.

Here is the 338 Federal Update for April 14th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection




Seat Projection






The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats






Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.




Use this list to find your federal electoral district:


Have a great week, and thank you for supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 12 April 2019

Pollara/Maclean's: UCP 45%, NDP 38%, AP 8%

Polling firms only have three more days to take the pulse of Albertan voters ahead of the 30th Alberta general election next Tuesday. After Angus Reid earlier today, Pollara Strategic Insights published its first Alberta horserace numbers in a poll published by Maclean's magazine (see article by the excellent Jason Markusoff).

Pollara was on the field from April 8th to 10th and collected data from 1,005 Albertan voters. Here are the results:

The United Conservative Party stands at 45% of leaning and decided voters, which is the lowest the UCP has polled since the campaign began (since this is Pollara's first Alberta poll, we have no baseline from comparison).


The NDP's support seem to have stabilized in polls of this past week (with the notable exception of Forum Research). Pollara measures the NDP at 38% (earlier today, Angus Reid polled the NDP at 39%).

The Alberta Party stands at 8% and the Liberals at 4%.

It is interesting to note that this Pollara poll is the only one of late to include the Alberta Independence Party in its tables. The AIP is at 2%, and so is the Freedom Conservative Party. The Green Party of Alberta is at 1%.

Here are the polls since the campaign began:



The full list of polls is available is here.

The 338 Alberta model will be updated overnight. Albertans will be able to see its details in time with their morning coffee.

* * *

Here is the poll report from Pollara.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.