Sunday, 17 March 2019

338 Projection Update: CPC Widens Gap Again

We add new polls to the 338 Electoral Model this week:


You can find the complete list of federal polls on this page.

Here is the 338 Electoral Projection for March 17th 2019 (today's projection is a stub, because there is so much on my plate this week I can't even... All apologies.)


Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week with an average of 36.2%. Should such number transfer into votes in the fall, the CPC would almost be assured to win at least a minority. Of course, the election is still seven months away.


The Liberal Party of Canada seems to have stabilized its support with an average of 32.7% this week.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projections



The Conservatives win on average 159 seats, 11 seats short of a majority. Contrary to what many observers opined last fall, it doesn't look (yet) like the PPC is hurting the Conservatives' chances. At least so far.




The Liberals are down to 135 seats on average.


Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in 68% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats (threshold at 170 seats) in 35% of simulations.



You can access the projections per party per region, as well as (NEW FEATURE!) see the ordered list of districts per party from safest to least probable. Follow these links:



Regional Distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated and can be viewed here.



You can find your home districts using this list:


New numbers will be published this week. As usual, you'll find analysis on this blog and a complete update next Sunday.

Thank you all for supporting this project. Have a great week!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.