Sunday, 10 March 2019

338 Projection Update: Liberals Slide, Conservatives Widen Lead

With the SNC-Lavalin saga still going full steam last week, tons of fresh data were published about the political mood of Canadians and their voting intentions. As we will see below, there was very little good news for the governing Liberals.

Along with the usual weekly adjustments to the model, we add several new polls to the 338 electoral projection:

You can find the complete list of polls on this page. Here is the 338 Projection Update for Marth 10th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection



The Conservatives Party of Canada increases its lead once again this week with an average of 35.2% of voting intentions Canada wide.


For the fifth consecutive week, the Liberal Party of Canada lost ground to its main rival with a drop of 1.1 point, and is now down to 32.9% of average support. On average, the Liberals shed points in every region of the country (yes, including Quebec), with the notable exception of British Columbia.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection



With this level of support. the Conservative Party of Canada takes an average lead of 14 seats over the Liberals. The CPC's seat average this week climbs to 155 seats.



Here are the averages of projected seat totals per region:




The probability densities of the Conservatives and Liberals still overlap significantly (naturally, when polls disagree - as they have this week - the uncertainty goes up):




With the Liberals sliding again this week, the NDP has increased its seat projection modestly, from an average of 18 to 25.



The Bloc québécois seat projection is steady, with an average of 14 seats (with 19% of popular support in Quebec).



It may simply be noise in the data, but the Green Party of Canada polled poorly this week in BC, causing its seat average to drop to 3 seats. Here is the GPC probability density:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Conservatives win the most seats in 60% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats in 29% of simulations.



Here are the 338 odds over time since last fall:




Regional distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated on this page.




To find your home district, use the links on this list:

The Liberals will unveil the last budget of the 42nd legislature. Will it help them recover, or will the SNC-Lavalin story keep dragging them down? We shall see in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Thanks to all 338Canada readers, and thank you for sharing this page if you enjoy this blog.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.