Sunday, 3 March 2019

338 Projection Update: Conservatives Edge Grits in Vote, Seat Projections

We add two new polls this week to the 338 Electoral Model:


Also, there were by-elections last Monday, which saw Jagmeet Singh wins his Burnaby South seat, the Conservatives holding on to York-Simcoe, and the Liberals retaking Outremont after twelve years of NDP rule. These by-elections were used to re-calibrate the "water level" in each of these regions.

Here are the federal polls since December 2018:


You can find the complete list on this page.


Here is the 338 Electoral Projection for March 3rd 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada still sits on top of voting intentions with an average of 35.1% support across the country, but, considering the model's uncertainty and the variance of polls, it is still considered a statistical tie with the Liberals



The Liberal Party of Canada slips at 34.0%, its lowest level since the 338 tracker began last fall. Although the House will not sit for a few weeks (leading to the last Budget of the 42nd legislature), we do not know whether the SNC-Lavalin story has fully taken hold yet. The last poll published this week from the Angus Reid Institute was on the field before Jody Wilson-Raybould's testimony.

The New Democratic Party is stable at an average of 13.7%. With its leader finally elected, it will be interesting to see whether an increase in visibility and notoriety will help or hurt Jagmeet Singh. But, from a purely historical basis, it's hard to imagine the NDP sinking any lower.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projections


As it was the case last week, we still have a statistical tie on top of the seat projections, with the Conservative Party of Canada holding a slight edge at an average of 153 seats.



Not far behind, the Liberal Party of Canada wins an average of 147 seats, a vast majority of those seats east of Winnipeg.

Here are the seat probability densities of the LPC and CPC:




The New Democratic Party remains stable and wins an average of 19 seats (NDP projection page):





The Bloc québécois, with an average popular vote of 19% in Quebec, is currently projected at 13.5 seats. (BQ projection page)


The Green Party of Canada wins an average of 4 seats, all of them in British Columbia.





Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in 54% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats (threshold at 170 seats) in 23% of simulations.



The Liberals win the most seats in 45% of simulations, and a majority in 18%.

A seat total tie between the Conservatives and Liberals occurs in 0.8% of simulations.


Regional Distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated and can be viewed here.



You can find your home districts using this list:


New numbers will be published this week. As usual, you'll find analysis on this blog and a complete update next Sunday.

Thank you all for supporting this project. Have a great week!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.