Sunday, 31 March 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Liberals Nosedive, CPC in Majority Territory

We interrupt this coverage of the Alberta general election campaign (338 Alberta page here) for this update on the federal horserace, which has tilted heavily against the governing Liberals in the past eight weeks.

We add three new polls to the 338 electoral model this week:
(*Please note the Ipsos/Global News poll did not include neither the Greens nor the PPC in its tables. Data from other polling firms suggest those two parties regularly poll a combined 8-12% of decided voters.)

(**A Mainstreet Research federal poll was published this morning, but it came too late to be included in this week's projection. It will be added to the model for next week's projection.)

The complete list of federal polls can be found on this page.

Here is the 338 Federal Projection Update for March 31st 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week, while the Liberals continue their slide. On average, the CPC support stands at 37.1%.


Just when we thought the LPC had perhaps hit its floor... This week's 338 Projection gives the Liberal Party of Canada an average of 30.7%, down a point and a half from last week.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projection


Unsurprisingly, the Conservative Party of Canada would now be the clear favourite to win the most seats should an election be held this spring. The CPC's average is up more than 10 seats this week only and reaches 176 seats, slightly above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.



Here are the probability densities of the CPC and LPC's seat projections:


As the Liberals fall, the NDP climbs. The NDP average reaches now 30 seats:


In Quebec, the Bloc québécois remains stable at 13 seats on average (with 18.5% support in the province):


The Green Party of Canada also remains stable at an average of four seats:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Conservatives win the most seats in more than nine out of ten simulations (92.3%). What a turnout in such a short span of time. In the January 20th 2019 projection, barely two months ago, the Liberals won more than three quarters of simulations.






Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.





Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Federal politics will take a back seat for the next four weeks as Alberta entered its 30th general election campaign earlier last week. Albertans will go to the polls on April 16th. If Alberta politics is of any interest to you, allow me to invite you to visit 338 Alberta's page, where you can find provincial projections, district projections and, of course, a complete interactive map.

Thank you for supporting this page. Have a great week.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.