Sunday, 10 February 2019

338 Projection Update: February 10th 2019

New polls were added to the 338 Projection this week: the Nanos weekly tracker and the Léger/Journal de Montréal Québec poll.

Here are all the national polls from the last twelve months. The complete list is available here.




Popular Vote Projection


Again this week, we have a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives on top of voting intentions:


Here are the popular vote intentions with 95% confidence interval brackets:




Seat Projection


We still have a significant overlap between the Liberals and Conservatives for the seat projections. The threshold for a majority is 170 seats.



Here are the seat projections per party:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Liberals win the most seats in two thirds of all 100k simulations. The Conservatives win the remaining third.



Regional distribution


The complete map of this projection has been updated. Click here to visit the interactive map.



All 338 district projections are now available on 338Canada.com. To find your home district, use this list:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.