Sunday, 17 February 2019

338 Projection Update: February 17th 2019

The details of this week's 338 Electoral Projection are published on L'actualité magazine's website at this address. I invite you to visit the page and support this project. If you do not read French, online translators like Google Translate do a surprisingly decent job (I've tried it myself and it's not half bad!).


Here are the seat projections per party:



The complete map of this projection has been updated. Click here to visit the interactive map.



All 338 district projections are now available on 338Canada.com. To find your home district, use this list:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 16 February 2019

Campaign Research Poll: Conservatives Ahead Nationally, BQ surges in Quebec

The polling firm Campaign Research was last on the field in December and it measured a two point lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals (essentially a statistical tie if we consider the poll's uncertainty).

Last night, Campaign published fresh numbers that show the Conservatives taking an outright lead in voting intentions in Canada. Campaign was on the field February 7th to 11th, meaning it was polling Canadians as the Globe & Mail story about Justin Trudeau, Jody Wilson-Raybould and SNC-Lavalin was unfolding.

Here are the results:



The Conservative Party of Canada leads the pack with 37% of support among the poll's 1 590 voter sample. It is the highest score for the CPC in a non-Forum Research poll in months.

Also of note in this poll are the Quebec numbers. In the past weeks, the polling firms Léger, Innovative Reseach, Nanos and now Campaign Research all measured an increase of support for the Bloc québécois in Quebec. For the better part of 2018, the BQ was polling in the low teens and its seat projection hovered around 3-8 seats at best. The arrival of new Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet may have revived the hopes of the pro-independence party.

Here are Campaign's latest Quebec numbers:


These new numbers will be added to the list of polls included in the 338 model. A complete new electoral projection will be published tomorrow, Sunday February 17th. Stay tuned.

Enjoy the weekend!


* * *

Here is the report from Campaign Research.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 10 February 2019

338 Projection Update: February 10th 2019

New polls were added to the 338 Projection this week: the Nanos weekly tracker and the Léger/Journal de Montréal Québec poll.

Here are all the national polls from the last twelve months. The complete list is available here.




Popular Vote Projection


Again this week, we have a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives on top of voting intentions:


Here are the popular vote intentions with 95% confidence interval brackets:




Seat Projection


We still have a significant overlap between the Liberals and Conservatives for the seat projections. The threshold for a majority is 170 seats.



Here are the seat projections per party:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Liberals win the most seats in two thirds of all 100k simulations. The Conservatives win the remaining third.



Regional distribution


The complete map of this projection has been updated. Click here to visit the interactive map.



All 338 district projections are now available on 338Canada.com. To find your home district, use this list:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 3 February 2019

338 Projection Update: Return to a Two-Party System in Canada?

New polls were published in the past seven days: the Nanos weekly update and the federal Mainstreet Research Ultrapoll. Both polls showed similar tendencies: 1) the Liberals still stand slighly ahead of the Conservatives, but are losing ground in the West, 2) the NDP are near a complete collapse, 3) The Bloc québécois has not (yet) enjoyed a boost from the nomination of its new leader Yves-François Blanchet.

All federal polls are listed on this page. Methodology for this projection follows the same basic rules as did the Qc125 model in Québec and Ontario*: the model calculates a weighted average of all polls publicly published by professional firms. The weighting depends on field date, sample size and historical performance of the polling firm on similar polling endeavours (i.e. provincial polls are not the same as federal polls or municipal polls, etc.). Moreover, the model takes into account the electoral history of all regions of Canada and the demographic data published by the Canadian census.

(*In 2018, the Qc125 model correctly predicted the PC and CAQ majorities in Ontario and Québec respectively, and correctly identified the winners in 111/124 ridings in Ontario and 112/125 ridings in Québec.)

As the last parliamentary session of the 42nd federal legislature gets under way next week, here are where the main parties stand less than 8 months away from the general election.



Popular Vote Projection


Although every poll published since mid-December 2018 shows the Liberals in the lead nation-wide, the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is still too narrow to be considered statistically significant. Indeed, as we will see below, we have a statistical tie on top of voting intentions.

The Liberal Party of Canada leads the way with an average of 35.9%. As we will see below, the Liberals are leading in the Maritimes, Québec and are neck and neck with the Conservatives in Ontario. The Liberals seem to have lost ground lately in BC, where it could cost them some crucial seats.

The Conservative Party of Canada currently stands at an average support of 34.0%. According to current numbers, the Conservatives could win as many as 40 more seats than in 2015. Those net gains could potentially come from New Brunswick, Ontario, and all of the western provinces.

For most of 2018, the New Democratic Party polled, at best, in the low 20s and in the high teens, but in the past few months, its score has fallen closer to 15% or below. This week, the NDP's average stands at 13.0%. On February 25th, all eyes will turn towards the Vancouver district of Burnaby South where NDP Jagmeet Singh hopes to get elected to the House of Commons. Should he failed to do so, it could have national consequences.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection


The Liberal Party of Canada, which won 184 seats in 2015, wins a average of 174 seats over one hundred thousand simulations performed by the 338 model. The threshold for a majority is 170 seats, so a Liberal majority - or even a Liberal win for that matter - would be far from certain should those numbers hold until the fall.


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week in the seat projection, this time with an average seat count of 143. As it stands right now, the CPC would be the only party in position to make net gains compared to the 2015 general election (with, to a much lesser extent, the Green Party of Canada).

Consider the following graphs. It depicts the probability densities of seat projections for all major parties with a comparison with their 2015 seat totals.

For the LPC and CPC, the probability functions overlap significantly, meaning that although the Liberals still hold a slight edge, a Conservative (minority) win would still be a plausible scenario:


Here is the NDP seat probability density. Obviously, it falls way short of its 44 seat total of 2015:


For the Bloc québécois, I would urge to use caution with these numbers. As mentioned above, the BQ has a new leader since mid-January, and it would be a reasonable assumption that his arrival has not yet made the needle move for the pro-independence party.


The Green Party of Canada is projection to make modest gains, especially in Vancouver Island in BC:







Projection of outcome


With these numbers, the Liberals win the most seats in about three quarters of all simulations. This graphs shows the probability density of the seat difference between the LPC and the CPC.





Regional Distribution


All 338 district projections are now available on 338Canada.com. To find your home district, use this list:


The complete map of this projection is available on this page.



New polls are expected later this week. Stay tuned.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.