Sunday, 6 January 2019

338Canada Electoral Projection Update: January 6th 2019

All 338 electoral district projections are available per region:


In total, six political parties are included in this projection. For regional projections of those parties, click on the following links:


Here is the 338Canada popular vote projection for January 6th 2019:

With an average gap of only two points between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have an almost statistical tie in the popular vote projection:



As for the seat projection, even though the Liberals still hold an edge on the average seat count, the seat distribution of the Liberals and Conservatives overlap significantly, as you can see on the graph below:


The New Democratic Party still stands far behind its main competitors at an average of 24 seats. Even a result close to 2015's 44 seats look all but impossible according to current data.


In Québec, numbers for the Bloc québécois remain highyl uncertain. The curve below indicate however that the needle has not moved much since Yves-François Blanchet announced his candidacy for the leadership. We'll see in the coming weeks whether that changes or not.


Lastly,  the Green Party of Canada looks to be in a fairly good position to make modest gains. In 2015, only Green leader Elizabeth May had won a riding under the GPC banner.




To browse through the complete map of the projection, click on the following link.







Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.