Thursday, 13 December 2018

Rachel Notley's NDP Is In Trouble

The Calgary based firm ThinkHQ published an Alberta poll last week and it confirmed the trends that other pollsters have measured over the better part of 2018 - at least since the merger between the PC and the Wildrose.

According to this poll, the United Conservative Party has a substantial lead over Rachel Notley's NDP:


In fact, the UCP leads by double digits in Calgary and in every other region of Alberta.

Only in Edmonton is the NDP still leading in voting intentions - but by a narrower margin than the 2015 general election results. In 2015, the NDP received over 60% of the vote in greater Edmonton and this polls only measures 47% of support for the governing party (and 36% for the UCP).

I am working on an Alberta model which should be ready this spring. To be continued.


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This poll was conducted November 21st to 26th 2018 with an online panel and has a sample size of 1 102 potential Alberta voters.


Here is the ThinkHQ poll report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.