Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Nanos Tracker: LPC and CPC Tied (which Does Not Make Forum Right)

As we say in French: "Coup de théâtre!"

The weekly Nanos tracker was updated this afternoon and a gigantic conservative bump in Ontario transformed a comfortable liberal lead in a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives. Here are the national results.

The Conservative Party of Canada ticks up seven points to 35% of respondents of the last four weeks*. This is the highest CPC measure from Nanos since last August.




Conversely, the Liberal Party of Canada drop four points and now sit at 34%, the lowest liberal level from Nanos since June.

(* The Nanos tracker polls 250 potential voters per week, so the sample is completely renewed after four weeks.)

What could have happened in the past four weeks for Nanos to witness such a swing? The regional results indicate that the Liberals have stayed the course in the Atlantic (47%) and in Québec (44%), but have dropped by double digits in Ontario.

During the same period, the Conservatives have climbed an incredible 15 points... a dramatic 28 point swing in the province of Doug Ford.


Nevertheless, I urge my readers to be use caution: it is not impossible that this poll is an outlier. We constantly have to keep in mind that polls are made of statistical samples which naturally contain noise. We will see in the next few weeks whether Nanos has detected the start of new trend or just a statistical aberration.

To be continued.

And for those who say: "Looks like Forum was right", I offer you this graph. It contains every national poll of 2018. the Forum polls are indicated with an arrow.


See a trend? Forum has published nothing but outliers on the national scene in 2018. The fact that Nanos just detected a closer horse race doesn't make Forum "more right": even an unplugged clock gives the right time twice a day.

(Or even the blind squirrel finds the occasional nut, whichever analogy you please.)

The 338Canada seat projection will be updated this Sunday (and every Sunday until the start of the campaign next fall).


* * *

Here is Nanos' weekly report.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.