Thursday, 20 December 2018

Campaign Research: Conservatives Pull Ahead

In the past month, polls from multiple firms have measured a downward trend for the Justin Trudeau's Liberals. In early November, the Nanos tracker had the LPC alone in first place with double digit leads over the Conservatives. In mid Novermber, Leger estimated the Liberal lead at six points. Then in December, Nanos had a statistical tie between the LPC and the CPC.

Earlier this week, Toronto based Campaign Research published a poll conducted from an online panel of 1494 voters (from December 11th to 13th) which has the Conservative two points ahead of the Liberals.

Here are the national results:


Seeing the Conservatives at 35% is in itself not surprising, since other firms on the field lately have measured the same level of support. However, 33% for the Liberals is much lower than its recent score (except from Forum...). Perhaps Nanos' big swing from two weeks ago was not so much an outlier after all.

The main difference between this Campaign Research poll and others we have seen lately is the support for the Liberals in both Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Campaign measures the LPC at 38% in both regions - which still puts the Liberals in first place, but with much narrower margins.

Campaign also has a statistical tie in Ontario with the Conservatives at 37% and Liberals at 36%. In the Prairies, the CPC has a 20 point lead and in Alberta, 40 points separate the CPC and the LPC. In BC, there is a near tie at the top with the Liberals at 34% and Conservatices at 30%.

We add this Campaign Research poll to the list of federal polls of 2018:


Angus Reid also published a poll yesterday. I will delve into that throughout the day.

This surely will make the next 338Canada projection update interesting! It will be ready this Sunday, as usual. Stay tuned.


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Here is Campaign Research's full report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.