Saturday, 17 November 2018

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals Comfortably in the Lead

A new poll published this morning by Abacus Data confirms trends that have been measured by other polling firms of late, with Justin Trudeau's Liberals comfortably ahead 11 months away from the general elections. Hypothetically, should these numbers hold until October (hint: they won't), the Liberals would easily win a second majority.

This new Abacus poll was on the field from November 9th to 13th 2018 and was conducted by internet panel with 1500 Canadians.

Here are the national results. The Liberal Party of Canada receives 38% of total voting intentions, which indicates that the Liberals have been holding steady since the previous Abacus poll last August.


The Conservative Party of Canada stands at 31% nationally, three points back of its August result.

The New Democratic Party remains stable with 16% and the Green Party of Canada ticks slightly upwards at 9%.


However, it is only when we look at the regional numbers across Canada that we can see how comfortable this liberal lead really is. In Atlantic Canada, Abacus measures the LPC at 59% of support, more than 40 points (!!) ahead of the Conservatives.

In Québec, despite a modest drop for the Liberals (which could be due to normal fluctuations because of the smaller sample size), the LPC is still far ahead of their rivals with 36%.



Far behind the Liberals, Abacus measures a tight battle for second place with the Conservatives at 19%, the NDP at 17% and the Bloc québécois at 15%.



In Ontario, Trudeau's Liberals hold a ten point lead over the CPC. The NDP stands far behind at only 16%.

In the Prairies and in Alberta, the Conservatives still dominate their rivals. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the CPC stands at 40% - 17 points ahead of the Liberals. In Alberta, the CPC reigns with 59%, almost forty points ahead of the Liberals.

In British Columbia, where numerous swing districts could be decided by just a handful of points, the race is much tighter. but the Liberals still hold the lead.


Jean-Marc Léger himself tweeted last week that his firm was on the field for new federal numbers. As soon as they are published, I will update the projection for all 338 districts.


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Details of the Abacus Data poll can be found here.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.