Tuesday, 27 November 2018

Nanos Tracker Update: LPC soars in Ontario, Leads Nationally

The Nanos tracker has been updated (November 23rd update). The Liberals are stable at 40% nationally and the Conservative are back above the 30% threshold.



The NDP continues its free fall and is now at 15% nationally.

While the LPC is stable across the country, Nanos now measures a considerable gap between the Liberals and Conservative in Ontario. Indeed, in the past month, NDP support has dropped significantly in Ontario resulting in a Liberals surge.




Will it last? Only time will tell, but with the Liberals already comfortably ahead in the Atlantic and Québec, a double-digit lead in Ontario would make a Conservative victory mathematically impossible.

Obviously, we are 11 months away from the election. But Andrew Scheer and his team have to start deploying their Ontario and Québec strategy, if it exists, quickly if they hope to take power next year.

* * *

Details of the Nanos tracker here.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 25 November 2018

338Canada Federal Projection Update: November 25th 2018

With new polls published in the past few weeks (here is the full list), I updated the projections for all 338 federal districts. You can access those projections by region::


This 338Canada Projection includes the following political parties: the Liberal Party of Canada, the Conservative Party of Canada, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party of Canada, the Bloc québécois and the People's Party of Canada.

Here is the popular vote projection:





Here is the seat projection. The threshold of majority at the House of Commons is 170 seats.




You can also view the interactive map of the projection by clicking the following image:






Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Monday, 19 November 2018

Beauce: Maxime Bernier and CPC Candidate Neck and Neck

A poll of the federal district of Beauce, where Maxime Bernier hopes to win his first election as People's Party of Canada leader, has been published this morning by Mainstreet Research. Mainstreet was on the field November 10th and 11th and collected a sample of 616 Beauce voters. The margin of error is ±4%.

Here are the results among decided and leaning voters: conservative candidate Richard Lehoux (38%) and Maxime Bernier (35%) are in a statistical tie.



Unsurpringly, the Liberals, the Bloc, and the NDP will not be competitive in next year's election in Beauce. However, this Conservative stronghold now looks almost evenly split between Maxime Bernier and the Conservatives.

In 2015, Maxime Bernier won his riding of Beauce with almost 60% of the popular vote, more than 35 points ahead of the Liberals.


This poll will be taken into consideration for the next 338Canada projections, which will be published later this week. Stay tuned.

* * *

Here is the poll's full report.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 17 November 2018

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals Comfortably in the Lead

A new poll published this morning by Abacus Data confirms trends that have been measured by other polling firms of late, with Justin Trudeau's Liberals comfortably ahead 11 months away from the general elections. Hypothetically, should these numbers hold until October (hint: they won't), the Liberals would easily win a second majority.

This new Abacus poll was on the field from November 9th to 13th 2018 and was conducted by internet panel with 1500 Canadians.

Here are the national results. The Liberal Party of Canada receives 38% of total voting intentions, which indicates that the Liberals have been holding steady since the previous Abacus poll last August.


The Conservative Party of Canada stands at 31% nationally, three points back of its August result.

The New Democratic Party remains stable with 16% and the Green Party of Canada ticks slightly upwards at 9%.


However, it is only when we look at the regional numbers across Canada that we can see how comfortable this liberal lead really is. In Atlantic Canada, Abacus measures the LPC at 59% of support, more than 40 points (!!) ahead of the Conservatives.

In Québec, despite a modest drop for the Liberals (which could be due to normal fluctuations because of the smaller sample size), the LPC is still far ahead of their rivals with 36%.



Far behind the Liberals, Abacus measures a tight battle for second place with the Conservatives at 19%, the NDP at 17% and the Bloc québécois at 15%.



In Ontario, Trudeau's Liberals hold a ten point lead over the CPC. The NDP stands far behind at only 16%.

In the Prairies and in Alberta, the Conservatives still dominate their rivals. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the CPC stands at 40% - 17 points ahead of the Liberals. In Alberta, the CPC reigns with 59%, almost forty points ahead of the Liberals.

In British Columbia, where numerous swing districts could be decided by just a handful of points, the race is much tighter. but the Liberals still hold the lead.


Jean-Marc Léger himself tweeted last week that his firm was on the field for new federal numbers. As soon as they are published, I will update the projection for all 338 districts.


* * *

Details of the Abacus Data poll can be found here.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 14 November 2018

Mainstreet Research: Liberals lead nationally, widen lead in Ontario

A new national poll by Mainstreet Research is out this morning and it shows that the country may be becoming more geographically polarized. Indeed, according to these numbers, Liberal support east of Manitoba could be enough to secure a second straight majority for Trudeau and his team.

Overall, the Liberals are stable with 39% (comparison with the last national Mainstreet, which dates back to July 2018), which is roughly the support that lead to an LPC majority in 2015. The Conservatives stand at 35%.



As for the New Democrats, Mainstreet's numbers seem to confirm what other pollsters have measured in the past month: the NDP is in free fall at only 11% nationally according to this poll. With such numbers, the NDP would be lucky to get to official party status (threshold at 12 seats at the House of Commons).

The Greens hold steady at 7% nationally, which would more or less double their 2015 support.

Maxime Bernier's People Party of Canada received 4% of support nationally (first time Mainstreet has the PPC in its public polls). Other pollsters like Nanos measured the PPC at 1%, so we will have to wait and see whether the PPC has really taken off.

Here are the regional results.

Atlantic Provinces


In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals still hold a double digit lead over the conservatives. The Greens seem to have caught up with the NDP.




Quebec


In Québec, Liberal domination continues. With such numbers, Trudeau could actually pick up a dozen or so seats in the province. The Conservatives would most likely hold on to their Quebec City seats. The NDP would be wiped out of Québec, with the notable exception of Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie.

The Bloc québécois still has no leader, but as you can see below, he will have his work cut for him (of her). The Bloc won 19% of the popular vote in Québec in 2015.




Ontario



This is the most significant - and surprising - number of this poll: Mainstreet measures a double digit Liberal lead in Ontario, with the LPC gaining five points since July.

Hypothetically, if those number were confirmed by voters next October - double digit Liberal all in Altalntic, Québec AND Ontario - the election would be called before we get to the Central Time Zone.




Manitoba and Saskatchewan



In the Prairies, the Conservatives hold a steady lead which would hand them most of the region's 28 seats.




Alberta


In Alberta, the NPD and Liberals would be hard-pressed to win back the seats they won in 2015, with Edmonton-Strathcona being an exception. Alberta looks more and more like a PCC almost) sweep.




British Columbia


In British Columbia, there is a close race at the top between the Liberals and Conservatives, and another close race for third place between the Greens and the NDP.



We can expect more polls later this week (Léger confirmed on Twitter his poll was coming). Once we have this new data, I will update the projection in all 338 districts soon. Stay tuned.

* * *

The poll's full report is available here.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Welcome to 338Canada

After working on both the Ontario and Québec provincial elections with a certain degree of success (and some room for improvement), I decided to dive deep into the rabbit hole that is Canadian demographic data and the electoral history of all 338 districts to build a federal model. I still have some details to work on and variables to polish up, but it is now ready for publication.

And so 338Canada.com is now finally online. I will make monthly updates until the start of the federal campaign, which should begin in early September 2019. Projections for all 338 electoral districts are available, with each district having its own page with recent electoral history, basic demographic data and, of course, the map of each district as provided by Elections Canada.

The site divides Canada into seven regions:

  • Atlantic, 32 districts from Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick;
  • Québec, 78 districts;
  • Ontario, 121 districts;
  • Prairies, 28 districts from Manitoba and Saskatchewan;
  • Alberta, 34 districts;
  • British Columbia, 42 districts;
  • Territories, three districts from Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut;

There is also an interactive map to offer readers a better visualization of voting intentions across the country. You can visit the map here.




About 338's Methodology



The 338 model uses a mostly proportional swing with regional adjustments. For instance, if a party goes from 30% to 33% in the poll aggregate, an increase of 10%, then its score goes up by 10% in every district - if said party is at 15% in district X, then its score goes up to 16.5% (an increase of 1.5 point).

But mostly does not mean exclusively. The 338 model also uses demographic data: careful considerations is given to demographics of each district, such as median and average household income, age distribution, language most spoken at home, etc. This data is used to make statistical correlations of voting intention swings between regions and districts.

Also, the electoral history of said regions and districts is also taken into consideration - by giving probabilistic floors and ceilings for each political party.

Finally, the effect of star candidates is also estimated by calculating the approximate over-performance of past candidates in similar situations (party leader, cabinet minister, high media visibility candidates, etc.).

Ultimately, I base this federal model on those I used in Ontario in June 2018 and in Québec in October 2018.

A quick note on the districts classifications of "Safe", "Likely", "Leaning" and "Toss up": these terms are determined by the odds of winning the districts according to current data.

  • Safe: > 99%
  • Likely: 80% - 99%
  • Leaning: 60% - 80%
  • Toss up: < 60%


Does it Work?


In June 2018, the night before election day in Ontario, I published a projection that showed the PCP led by Doug Ford was most likely going to win a majority government. Out of 124 electoral districts, the model identified the correct winner in 111 of them.

Out of the 13 misses, 11 winners had results within the model's margin of error. Only two districts were complete misses.

In October 2018, I published a final Quebec projection in L'actualité magazine showing the CAQ led by François Legault was going to win - not assuredly, but most likely a majority. However, the final polls of the election missed the mark a little but by underestimating CAQ support. The poll average for the CAQ was between 31-33% and it won 37% when all the votes were counted.

Nevertheless, the model correctly identified 112 winners out of 125. Out of those 13 misses, four were within the margin of error. Nine districts were misses, with most of those going to the CAQ, largely due to the polls underestimating CAQ support (and also very low Liberal turnout).


In both elections, my model correctly identified 90% of district winners (111 of 124 in Ontario and 112/125 in Québec) - although the Québec model would have performed even better had polls been more precise (the CAQ was estimated at 32-33% and won with 37% of the popular vote). You can read my post-mortem on the Québec election here (in French).


In the Alberta general election of April 2019, the 338Canada model correctly identified 82 of 87 district winners. Out of the five misses, three were within the confidence intervals.

And only two Alberta districts were complete misses.


On Social Media



The 338Canada Facebook page is now available here. The rules of conduct on the page are stricter than those you'd expect from a mainstream media comment section: obviously, personal insults, disrespectful language promoting hate and just plain general trolling will result in a permanent ban. Moreover, promotional videos or links, as well as overly partisan content will be removed. Finally, those who promote conspiracy theories or try to attack my credibility will be banned (e.g.: "pwned by Tories" or "Liberal shill" [yes, those are actual examples]). I have no time to deal with such people.

You may also follow me on Twitter here. I post in both French and English. Again, those who are disrespectful will be muted or blocked. You may disagree with my numbers and/or analysis, but there are ways to express disagreement without insults. I will gladly engage with people who respectfully challenge my findings.

Lastly, I do speak and write in English, but my mother tongue - and the only language I've used up to age 18 - is French. So please be nice to me if I say/write the occasional Frenchism/Gallicism.

I hope you enjoy the website.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.