Tuesday, 19 March 2019

Nanos Weekly Tracker: CPC 36, LPC 33, NDP 20

The Nanos Weekly Tracker has been updated. Since this rolling polls adds a sample of 250 voters per week, we now have a complete sample of 1000 voters taken since the beginning of the SNC-Lavalin affair. This poll spans from February 15th to March 15th.

Here are the results:

The Conservative Party of Canada gained four points in the past month and sits at 36% nationally. The CPC leads in all Western provinces (although BC is a statistical tie) and is tied with the Liberals in Ontario.



The Liberal Party of Canada dropped 5 points since the saga began and falls to 33%. The results from both the CPC and the LPC are in line with the latest 338 projection (which you can find here).

The NDP, maybe surprisingly, also climbs significantly according to Nanos and gets the support of 20% of respondents. If this level of support is confirmed, it could mean the NDP actually got a boost from the election of Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South. The NDP could also be benefitting from the Liberals' handling of the SCN-Lavalin affair.

It's budget day in Ottawa. New numbers coming soon.


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A link to the Nanos report will be added shortly.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 17 March 2019

338 Projection Update: CPC Widens Gap Again

We add new polls to the 338 Electoral Model this week:


You can find the complete list of federal polls on this page.

Here is the 338 Electoral Projection for March 17th 2019 (today's projection is a stub, because there is so much on my plate this week I can't even... All apologies.)


Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week with an average of 36.2%. Should such number transfer into votes in the fall, the CPC would almost be assured to win at least a minority. Of course, the election is still seven months away.


The Liberal Party of Canada seems to have stabilized its support with an average of 32.7% this week.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projections



The Conservatives win on average 159 seats, 11 seats short of a majority. Contrary to what many observers opined last fall, it doesn't look (yet) like the PPC is hurting the Conservatives' chances. At least so far.




The Liberals are down to 135 seats on average.


Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in 68% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats (threshold at 170 seats) in 35% of simulations.



You can access the projections per party per region, as well as (NEW FEATURE!) see the ordered list of districts per party from safest to least probable. Follow these links:



Regional Distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated and can be viewed here.



You can find your home districts using this list:


New numbers will be published this week. As usual, you'll find analysis on this blog and a complete update next Sunday.

Thank you all for supporting this project. Have a great week!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.