Sunday, 20 January 2019

338Canada Electoral Projection Update: January 20th 2019

Here is the 338Canada popular vote projection for January 20th 2019:



Here is the seat projection:


The Liberals win three quarters out of simulations. With these numbers, a liberal majority is highly uncertain:



All 338 electoral district projections are available per region:


In total, six political parties are included in this projection. For regional projections of those parties, click on the following links:

To browse through the complete map of the projection, click on the following link.





Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Mainstreet Research: Jagmeet Singh Takes the Lead in Burnaby South

 A new poll of the Vancouver district of Burnaby South was conducted by Mainstreet Research last week and the results were published today. It looks like Jagmeet Singh may be in a better position to win his by election then was anticipated.

The poll was conducted through automated calls (IVR: Interactive Voice Response) from January 8th to 10th. The sample size is significant for a riding poll: 740 adult voters. Such a probabilistic poll has a margin of error of 3.6%. According Mainstreet's report: "Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones, and were given the option of taking the survey in English, Cantonese, or Mandarin," which is understandable given the languages most spoken in Burnaby South.

Here are the results of decided and leaning voters:



The leader of the federal NDP is ahead of the pack with 39%. In a similar poll back in the fall, Singh was third in voting intentions. Perhaps Singh's ground game and visibility in the district have helped boost his appeal towards voters.

Karen Wang, the liberal candidate for the by election, is second with 26%.

Jay Shin, under the conservative banner, obtains 22%.

Finally, Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson, Maxime Bernier's choice for his party's first by election, is a distant fourth with 9%.

The Green Party of Canada will not have a candidate for the Burnaby South by election.

I will add this riding poll to the 338 model. As usual, all 338 projections will be updated this Sunday. Stay tuned!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.