Saturday, 6 July 2019

Abacus Data: CPC 33, LPC 32, NDP 16

The Ottawa-based firm Abacus Data released its latest federal horserace numbers this morning, and recent trends detected by the nation's pollsters seem to converge somewhat - at least more than they did during the spring.

Earlier this week, we saw DART measuring the Conservatives ahead by four points, but trailing in Ontario. On Tuesday, Nanos updated its weekly tracker and had the Liberals ahead for the first time since the SNC-Lavalin saga began in February. (All federal polls are listed here.) While Nanos' Liberal number seemed on the higher end of the poll average, the Liberal "recovery" appears to be real - even though, we must point out, the Conservatives are still ahead on the aggregate.

Here are Abacus Data's national numbers published this morning:



The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie, with the CPC at 33% and the Liberals, 32%. Support for all main parties remains generally stable compared to Abacus' late May numbers.

Because Abacus' sample size is rather large, the regional breakdown does not make the margin of error (or rather, the uncertainty) explode to unreasonable levels. Let's take a look:

  • In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals hold a ten-point lead over the Conservatives (39%-29%). As other pollsters have measured in the past months, the Greens have caught up to the NDP in third place. Although with 15% support in the region, it remains unsure whether the Greens can actually gain new seats. Fredericton may be the most probable Green seat, along with Charlottetown
  • In Quebec, the modest Conservative surge detected a few weeks ago seems to hold up. Abacus has the CPC at 24% in the province, which would be the highest score for federal conservatives since 2006 should it materialize in October. The Liberals still lead in Quebec with 33% of support. The Bloc is at 16%, the Greens at 14% and, this is not a typo, the NDP at a dismal 8%.
  • In Ontario, Abacus has a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with 34% apiece. Last week, both Forum Research and EKOS measured the Liberals ahead in Ontario (same with Nanos earlier this week), so it seems there is some level of disagreement here.
  • In the Prairies (MB/SK), the Conservatives hold a 14-point lead over the Liberals (40%-26%), which is consistent with current data.
  • In Alberta, unsurprisingly the Conservative hold a massive lead over their rivals with 53% of support, which is on the low end for the CPC in Alberta: other recent polls have measured the Conservatives as high as 60% or even 65%.
  • In British Columbia, the Liberals stand at 32% according to Abacus, the Conservatives 27% and the NDP 23% (the highest NDP score in this poll). The Greens have 15% support. 


And so we have fresh data to update the 338Canada projection tomorrow. It should be published in late afternoon, eastern time.

Enjoy the weekend, and thanks again for supporting this page.


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Here is Abacus Data's full report on the poll. There is a breakdown of voting intention according to age and education levels. It also contains interesting data regarding levels of support for federal party leaders and, as a bonus, Doug Ford.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.