Sunday, 12 May 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: May 12th 2019

We add three new polls to the 338 federal electoral model this week:
  • Abacus Data measures the Conservatives with a three points lead over the Liberals;
  • The Nanos weekly tracker also has the Conservatives ahead by 3 points nationally and the Greens are polling in double digits (with 15% in Atlantic provinces and 21% in B.C.); 
  • Campaign Research has a four point lead for the CPC four points ahead of the LPC, but with the Liberals slightly ahead in Ontario;

Here is the 338 Federal Update for May 12th 2019. The full list of polls can be found on this page.


Popular Vote Projection

The Conservatives lead the way again this week with an average lead of 5 about points ahead of the Liberals.






Seat Projection

The Conservatives are still projected ahead in the seat projection with 163 seats on average, but the confidence intervals overlap significantly with those of the Liberals. The LPC's average is at 124 seats.



The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats

According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in three quarters of all 2590k simulations.




Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Have a great week!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.