Tuesday, 23 April 2019

PEI 2019: Comparison of Seat Projection With Election Results

As of 22h00 eastern time, here is a quick comparison of the PEI election results with the vote and seat projections from earlier this evening (when the Leafs were still in the playoffs).

Popular vote wise, the pollsters underestimated the PC vote and overestimated the Greens, but the results are still within the model's confidence intervals:





Seat wise, with the Green overestimated in the polls, they lost a few close races that they could have won with a few more points on the Island. Assuming the Greens with the by-election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park (where the Greens are favoured), here is the seat projection compared to the 9 seat result:




Since the PC won a greater share of the vote than expected, so the PC seat total is just over its seat projection:



Finally, the Liberals won 6 seats. Its seat projection average was 4.




Since I strongly doubt the Liberals will want to prop up the Greens, we are in for a PC led minority government in PEI. On average, minority governments in Canada last about 18 months. We'll see whether the 66th PEI Legislative Assembly can manage to last that long.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.