Sunday, 21 April 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: CPC 161, LPC 136, NDP 24, BQ 12

The Alberta general election is now behind us. The final results (including all advance ballots) were published Friday. A full post-mortem will be published in the next few weeks, but at first glance the 338 electoral model performed generally well, even tough many polls missed the mark somewhat by underestimating Jason Kenney's United Conservatives. Nevertheless, the model correctly identified the winner in 82 of 87 districts, and three more were within the confidence intervals.

Many readers have asked whether there will be a 338 P.E.I model, the answer is this: a P.E.I projection from 338 can be found here. The PEI election will be held this Tuesday, April 23rd. Unfortunately, the timing of the PEI election made it impossible to have a regular tracker as was the case for Alberta, Quebec and Ontario. Moreover, data on the PEI election is scarce, so a full model would certainly be riddled with uncertainty.


As per every Sunday, we update the federal projections for all 338 districts. Three new polls were published in the past seven days: Forum Research, Innovative Research and Nanos.



The full list of polls can be found on this page.

Here is the 338 Federal Update for April 14th 2019.



Popular Vote Projection


Two of three polls published last week show diverging numbers to say the least. Forum Research measured the Conservatives with a 13 point lead. Innovative Research had the Liberals leading by 4 points. Which ones is closer to the mark? Innovative's numbers have leaned towards the LPC since the start of 2019, but by a much smaller gap than Forum's tilt towards the CPC (Forum has had the CPC leading in all of 2018, sometimes by double digits. Between February and March, in the middle ofthe SNC-Lavallin affair, Forum showed the Liberals gaining ground on the Conservatives, again going against the tide compared to other pollsters).

Bias? Incompetence? Propaganda?

No. Sometimes polls disagree, and that's why you need sites like this one.

Here are this week's averages. The Conservative Party of Canada are still leading the Liberals by an average of three points. Its average stands at 35.7%.



Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals. The tightening has been incremental, but the LPC and CPC confidence intervals now overlap significantly.





Seat Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada wins an average of 161 seats per simulation, short of the 170 seat threshold in about two thirds of simulations.


The Conservatives trail the Liberals in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. There is a statistical tie between the CPC and LPC in Ontario. West of Ontario, Conservatives lead voting intentions in every province, although British Columbia is still a very close race.

The Liberal Party of Canada wins an average of 136 seats. Most of those seats are located in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario. The Liberals are also projected ahead in Winnipeg and parts of the Lower Mainland in BC.

Here are the seat projection probability densities for the CPC and LPC:



The New Democratic Party is currently projected at an average of 24 seats. It is virtually shut out of the Atlantic provinces, has minimal support in Quebec (where it won 16 seats in 2015), in the Prairies and in Alberta. Most projected NDP seats are found in Ontario (notably in Hamilton, Windsor and Northern Ontario) and BC (mostly Vancouver and Vancouver Island).



In Quebec, the Bloc québécois is holding steady with projected seats mostly in the eastern tip of Montreal and in the 450 area (suburbs of Montreal).





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With this level of support, the Conservatives win the most seats in about seven of every ten simulations (or 69.1%). The odds of a Conservative majority currently stands at 35.8%.



The Liberals win the most seats in the remaining three out of ten simulations (30.1%). The CPC and LCP are tied for the most seats in 0.8% of simulations.

Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.




Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Have a great week, and thank you for supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.