Monday, 8 April 2019

338 Alberta Update: With One Week to Go, a UCP Majority Looks Inevitable

Unless Alberta voters don't show up at the voting booth nest Tuesday, it looks increasingly inevitable that the United Conservative Party will not only form the next Alberta government, but win a substantial majority at the LAA.

Two new polls have been published in the last twelve hours or so. First, Forum Research does what Forum does best: publish numbers that are both somewhat believable, but still outside of the current margins. Forum measures the UCP leading by more than 20 points: 55% to 32% for the NDP. Forum has the UCP ahead in every region of Alberta - yes, including Edmonton.

Second, Mainstreet Research sent out an embargoed poll for its daily tracker subscribers last night  (the embargoed ended at 6am this morning, eastern time). Their numbers are more inline with what we've come to expect so far: the UCP leading by ten points in Calgary, trailing by ten points in Edmonton, and ahead by a lightyear outside of the metropolitan areas.

The full list of polls is available here, including links to the polls' full reports.

Here is the 338 Alberta Update for April 8th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party not only still leads the way, but widens the gap on top of voting intentions with the support of about half of Albertan voters, averaging 50.2%.  (graph below compares numbers with those of last week).



Rachel's Notley's NDP stands at an average of 36.9%. The NDP leads in Edmonton, trails the all important battlefield of Calgary, and is behind the UCP by more than thirty points outside of the two urban areas (here are the links for Northern Alberta and Southern Alberta).

Apparently, the leaders' debate has not changed the momentum of this race - at least according to both polls that were conducted after last Thursday's feisty affair.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:


Neither the Alberta Liberal Party's nor the Alberta Party's campaigns seem to have moved the needle so far. Voting intentions have remained incrdibly flat, which, I must say, I find surprising.



Seat Projection


The United Conservative Party is still leading the NDP as of this morning, averaging 60.2 seats per simulation performed by the 338 electoral model. This seat average puts the UCP comfortably in majority territory (threshold for a majority is 44 seats).



The NDP's seat average goes down to 26.1. The NDP still appear to have a low ceiling of seats since it is polling so poorly outside of Calgary and Edmonton.


Even with a major polling error - from every polling firm on the field so far - the 338 model calculates that the NDP's superior confidence interval barely reaches 40 seats.



By rounding out the seat averages, here is what the LAA could look like after election day:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the UCP wins the most seats in more than nineteen of twenty simulations (96.2%).




The NDP wins the most seats in only 2.8% of simulations, so the UCP is still considered a strong favourite at this point.

The UCP and NDP are tied for the most seats in 1.0% of simulations.


Looking at these numbers, these is little doubt that Jason Kenney most important obstacle until election day will be voter apathy (and complacency?). Polls may measure the mood of public opinion, but polls do not vote. If UCP supporters stay home on election day, they could be in for a bad surprise later that night.


Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:


Find the complete interactive map of this projection here.



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Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.