Thursday, 11 April 2019

338 Alberta Update: NDP Lead Grows in Edmonton, but UCP Still Projected to Win Majority

We enter the last stretch of this pivotal Alberta election campaign. Advance polls have begun and reports from Elections Alberta seem to suggest the turnout could be higher this time around (turnout rate in both the 2012 and 2015 elections have hovered around a dismal 54%) with more than 140 000 Albertans casting a ballot on the very first day.

Here are where the main parties stand with five days to go. Publicly available polls used for this electoral projection can be found on this page. Please know that I am not allowed to publish the Mainstreet Research numbers here because they are paywalled (except of course last week's public release which you can find here) - but those numbers are included in this projection.



Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party has held steady for most of the campaign, polling just above or just below the 50% mark in th past month. Today's UCP average stands at 49.2% a drop of one point since last week.



Rachel's Notley's NDP stands at an average of 37.5%. The latest numbers from Mainstreet seem to show it has climbed closer to the 40% mark, so we will see in the next few days whether this tendency is confirmed. The NDP leads comfortably in Edmonton, and in fact data shows NDP support has grown in Edmonton (Mainstreet has the NDP ahead by 19 points in the Alberta capital).

But Notley's team still trails the all important battlefield of Calgary, where it needs to make strong gains to remain in power, and is still behind the UCP by more than twenty-five points outside of the two urban areas (here are the links for Northern Alberta and Southern Alberta).

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:



Neither the Alberta Liberal Party's nor the Alberta Party's campaigns seem to have moved the needle so far.

Seat Projection


The United Conservative Party is still leading the NDP as of this morning, averaging 59.2 seats per simulation performed by the 338 electoral model. This seat average still puts the UCP well above the majority threshold of 44 seats at the LAA.

The NDP's seat average stands at 27.1. Disagreement in recent polls have considerably widened the confidence intervals as you may see on the graph below. If the last remaining polls converge to more precise values, the seat projection uncertainties would obviously be reduced.


Naturally, the high uncertainty is not a bug of the model, but rather the result of inconsistent data.

By rounding out the seat averages, here is what the LAA could look like after election day:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the UCP wins the most seats in about eleven of every twelve simulations (93.4%).



The NDP wins the most seats in only 5.3% of simulations, so the UCP is still, as of this morning, considered a strong favourite to win the election.

The UCP and NDP are tied for the most seats in 1.3% of simulations.


Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:


Find the complete interactive map of this projection here.



I strongly suspect several polling firms will on the field this weekend to take the pulse of Albertan voters one last time before election day. Once we have all the numbers and data on hand, I will publish a final 338 Alberta projection on Monday.

Thanks again for sharing and supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.