Tuesday, 5 March 2019

Ipsos/Global News: Conservatives in Majority Territory

Last week, when the Angus Reid Institute published a poll that gave a seven point lead to Andrew Scheer's Conservatives over the Liberals, my first instinct was to urge patience. Noise happens all the time in statistical systems, and we must be careful to not confuse noise and data.

I wrote: "This poll is either the first to detect a new trend or simply an outlier. We'll have to wait and see." (source)

Well, here are the results of the new Ipsos/Global News poll.

Nationally, the Conservative Party of Canada receives 40% of voting intentions, a surge of 4 points since the middle of February when Ipsos was last on the field. Should those numbers reflect accurately the current picture in Canada, it would push the Conservatives well into majority territory.



The Liberal Party of Canada continues to slide and receives 31% of voting intentions. The Global News article mentions that the Liberals are now far behind the Tories in Ontario and have lost ground in the electoral battlefield that is Quebec.

The New Democratic Party stands at 20%, a three point climb for the party of Jagmeet Singh.

The full report of Ipsos' poll has not yet been released, so regional breakdowns are not yet available. More details to come soon.

(This should make the next 338 update on Sunday quite interesting.)




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.