Friday, 29 March 2019

Ipsos/Global News, Angus Reid Polls: Trouble Ahead for the Liberals, Conservatives in Majority Territory

Two more federal polls were published yesterday and both indicate that the governing Liberals could be in deep trouble.

First, the Angus Reid Institute was on the field from March 11th to 25th, an abnormally long field span, but managed to amass a substantial sample of 5807 respondents. Here are the results of decided and leaning voters. (See full report here.)

The Conservative Party of Canada leads the way with 37%. Such a support in October would assuredly translate into a conservative win, although a majority would still be uncertain. According to Angus Reid's numbers, the CPC leads in every region of the country, except Quebec where there is a statistical tie between the CPC and the LPC.




The Liberal Party of Canada falls to only 28% of respondents. The LPC trails the CPC by 4 points in both the Atlantic provinces and Ontario, and a staggering 13 points in British Columbia.



Second, Global News pulbished a new Ipsos poll that shows similar tendencies as Angus Reid. Ipsos was on the field from March 25th to 27th and has an internet panel sample size of 1002 potential voters.

According to Ipsos, the Conservative Party of Canada get the support of 40% likely voters ten points in front of the Liberals which stand at 30%. Should such numbers hold until October, it would most likely push the CPC above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.



Edit: here is the Ipsos full report.

Note that, according to the Global News article, neither the Green Party of Canada nor the People's Party has been included in the poll - which is a shame. Global wrote that "other parties" received support from only 4% of respondents, which, honestly, feels a little off considering the GPC and the PPC regularly get around 10% combined in polls from other firms.

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We add those new polls to the 338Canada electoral model. A full federal update will be published Sunday, as per usual.

Have a great Friday.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.