Wednesday, 6 March 2019

Hold the Narrative: Nanos Measures a Tie, Innovative LPC Still Ahead, Abacus Data CPC on Top

This is a test for political observers. A test of honesty.

In the midst of turbulent times in Ottawa, when allegations of misconduct show up in the news, political partisans tend to show their colours with even more conspicuousness.

We tend to arrive at conclusions that fit our own narrative - and it occurs with partisans of all political stripes.

It also occurs when contradicting polling numbers are published: whom are we to believe? Yesterday, an Ipsos/Global News showed the Conservatives well into majority territory.

But then later that evening, the firm Innovative Research published its new numbers and showed the Liberal still ahead (although not by much):

The weekly tracker from Nanos also was released and it measured a tie between the Conservatives and Liberals (with the Liberals dropping four points in February):

This morning, Abacus Data released its new poll and has the Conservatives ahead by as much as 6 points, thanks to a five point drop of the Liberals:

Polls are coming in so fast I don't have time (I am a full time Cegep teacher) to analyse and break them all down right now.

But I will crunch these numbers in the following days and publish an updated projection on Sunday, as usual.

Expect the CPC to still be in the lead, but the uncertainty to rise.

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à