Saturday, 23 March 2019

338 Alberta Update: UCP 65, NDP 21, AP 1

Polls released by Leger and Mainstreet Research (paywalled) last week have showed that while the Alberta Election is still Jason Kenney's to lose, Rachel Notley's NDP has somewhat improved its support since the beginning of winter (you can access the list of polls on this page).

However, it does not (yet) translate into many more seats for the NDP.

Here is an update for the 338 Alberta Projection (read the first projection here).


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party is projected at 50.8% of the popular vote according to the weight average of polls (as calculated by the 338 model). Earlier this week, both Leger and Mainstreet measured UCP support at 47%, bringing its average down a few points.

Rachel Notley's NDP is currently projected at an average of 36.5%, about five points down from its 2015 election result.

Here are the 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projection


The UCP wins an average of 65 seats, 21 seats above the threshold for a majority at the Alberta Legislature.

Here are the seat projections with 95% confidence intervals. If you find these confidence intervals ridiculously large, you would be correct: both the scarcity of data and the fact that recent polls have moved the needle quite a bit in the voting intentions increase dramatically the uncertainty in the seat projections (if new polls are published next week and confirm the latest numbers, the uncertainty will be reduced, naturally).


The NDP wins an average of 21 seats. Even though its projection ticked up somewhat since the writ was dropped last week, the road ahead is still incredibly steep for the NDP.

Here are the seat projection probability densities:




Here are preliminary maps of Calgary and Edmonton (still in the works):






Find Your District



The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New updates coming soon. Stay tuned.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.