Thursday, 21 March 2019

338 Alberta: Massive Advantage For the UCP At the Starting Line

This is a preliminary projection for the 30th Alberta General Election. There will be significant adjustments in the following days as new polls will be published. Also, the list of candidates running in the 87 electoral districts of Alberta is not yet complete. When it is, the 338 model will take it into account.

Data has been scarce in the past month on the voting intentions of Albertan voters. News polls from Lethbridge College and Ipsos have been published in the last month. Fresh new numbers will come out very soon. Mainstreet Research will conduct a daily poll tracker behind a paywall. To register, follow this link.

The complete list of polls will be updated regularly on this page.


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party of Alberta begins this election campaign with a massive lead over the governing NDP, with the support of a little more than half Albertan voters, 51.1%.

Rachel Notley's NDP stands at 32.3%, about nine points lower than the result of the 2015 Alberta election. According to the current projection, the NDP is trailing in every region of Alberta, except Edmonton, where the NDP and UCP are in a statistical tie.


The Alberta Party get 7.7%. The AP projection will undergo important adjustments in the coming days, since it slate of candidate is rather different than the one from 2015.


Here are the popular vote projection with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection


With such levels of support, the UCP wins, on average, a staggering 71 seats (out of 87). The threshold for a majority is at 44 seats, so it is quite an understatement to say that the UCP enjoys a massive advantage at the starting line of this campaign.



Here are the probability densities for the UCP and the NDP. As you can see, the curves do not overlap, meaning the UCP wins virtually every single simulation the model performs:




By rounding the seat projection averages to the closest unit, Here is what the Alberta Legislature could look like next month should those numbers hold:






Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page is now ready, even though new features should be published in the coming days and weeks. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New update coming soon. Stay tuned.

Happy campaign to all.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.