Thursday, 21 March 2019

338 Alberta: Massive Advantage For the UCP At the Starting Line

This is a preliminary projection for the 30th Alberta General Election. There will be significant adjustments in the following days as new polls will be published. Also, the list of candidates running in the 87 electoral districts of Alberta is not yet complete. When it is, the 338 model will take it into account.

Data has been scarce in the past month on the voting intentions of Albertan voters. News polls from Lethbridge College and Ipsos have been published in the last month. Fresh new numbers will come out very soon. Mainstreet Research will conduct a daily poll tracker behind a paywall. To register, follow this link.

The complete list of polls will be updated regularly on this page.


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party of Alberta begins this election campaign with a massive lead over the governing NDP, with the support of a little more than half Albertan voters, 51.1%.

Rachel Notley's NDP stands at 32.3%, about nine points lower than the result of the 2015 Alberta election. According to the current projection, the NDP is trailing in every region of Alberta, except Edmonton, where the NDP and UCP are in a statistical tie.


The Alberta Party get 7.7%. The AP projection will undergo important adjustments in the coming days, since it slate of candidate is rather different than the one from 2015.


Here are the popular vote projection with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection


With such levels of support, the UCP wins, on average, a staggering 71 seats (out of 87). The threshold for a majority is at 44 seats, so it is quite an understatement to say that the UCP enjoys a massive advantage at the starting line of this campaign.



Here are the probability densities for the UCP and the NDP. As you can see, the curves do not overlap, meaning the UCP wins virtually every single simulation the model performs:




By rounding the seat projection averages to the closest unit, Here is what the Alberta Legislature could look like next month should those numbers hold:






Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page is now ready, even though new features should be published in the coming days and weeks. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New update coming soon. Stay tuned.

Happy campaign to all.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 19 March 2019

Nanos Weekly Tracker: CPC 36, LPC 33, NDP 20

The Nanos Weekly Tracker has been updated. Since this rolling polls adds a sample of 250 voters per week, we now have a complete sample of 1000 voters taken since the beginning of the SNC-Lavalin affair. This poll spans from February 15th to March 15th.

Here are the results:

The Conservative Party of Canada gained four points in the past month and sits at 36% nationally. The CPC leads in all Western provinces (although BC is a statistical tie) and is tied with the Liberals in Ontario.



The Liberal Party of Canada dropped 5 points since the saga began and falls to 33%. The results from both the CPC and the LPC are in line with the latest 338 projection (which you can find here).

The NDP, maybe surprisingly, also climbs significantly according to Nanos and gets the support of 20% of respondents. If this level of support is confirmed, it could mean the NDP actually got a boost from the election of Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South. The NDP could also be benefitting from the Liberals' handling of the SCN-Lavalin affair.

It's budget day in Ottawa. New numbers coming soon.


* * *

A link to the Nanos report will be added shortly.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 17 March 2019

338 Projection Update: CPC Widens Gap Again

We add new polls to the 338 Electoral Model this week:


You can find the complete list of federal polls on this page.

Here is the 338 Electoral Projection for March 17th 2019 (today's projection is a stub, because there is so much on my plate this week I can't even... All apologies.)


Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week with an average of 36.2%. Should such number transfer into votes in the fall, the CPC would almost be assured to win at least a minority. Of course, the election is still seven months away.


The Liberal Party of Canada seems to have stabilized its support with an average of 32.7% this week.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projections



The Conservatives win on average 159 seats, 11 seats short of a majority. Contrary to what many observers opined last fall, it doesn't look (yet) like the PPC is hurting the Conservatives' chances. At least so far.




The Liberals are down to 135 seats on average.


Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in 68% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats (threshold at 170 seats) in 35% of simulations.



You can access the projections per party per region, as well as (NEW FEATURE!) see the ordered list of districts per party from safest to least probable. Follow these links:



Regional Distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated and can be viewed here.



You can find your home districts using this list:


New numbers will be published this week. As usual, you'll find analysis on this blog and a complete update next Sunday.

Thank you all for supporting this project. Have a great week!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 12 March 2019

338 on CTV News: Liberals Slide, Conservatives Lead, and the Bloc is Respectable Again






Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 10 March 2019

338 Projection Update: Liberals Slide, Conservatives Widen Lead

With the SNC-Lavalin saga still going full steam last week, tons of fresh data were published about the political mood of Canadians and their voting intentions. As we will see below, there was very little good news for the governing Liberals.

Along with the usual weekly adjustments to the model, we add several new polls to the 338 electoral projection:

You can find the complete list of polls on this page. Here is the 338 Projection Update for Marth 10th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection



The Conservatives Party of Canada increases its lead once again this week with an average of 35.2% of voting intentions Canada wide.


For the fifth consecutive week, the Liberal Party of Canada lost ground to its main rival with a drop of 1.1 point, and is now down to 32.9% of average support. On average, the Liberals shed points in every region of the country (yes, including Quebec), with the notable exception of British Columbia.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection



With this level of support. the Conservative Party of Canada takes an average lead of 14 seats over the Liberals. The CPC's seat average this week climbs to 155 seats.



Here are the averages of projected seat totals per region:




The probability densities of the Conservatives and Liberals still overlap significantly (naturally, when polls disagree - as they have this week - the uncertainty goes up):




With the Liberals sliding again this week, the NDP has increased its seat projection modestly, from an average of 18 to 25.



The Bloc québécois seat projection is steady, with an average of 14 seats (with 19% of popular support in Quebec).



It may simply be noise in the data, but the Green Party of Canada polled poorly this week in BC, causing its seat average to drop to 3 seats. Here is the GPC probability density:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Conservatives win the most seats in 60% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats in 29% of simulations.



Here are the 338 odds over time since last fall:




Regional distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated on this page.




To find your home district, use the links on this list:

The Liberals will unveil the last budget of the 42nd legislature. Will it help them recover, or will the SNC-Lavalin story keep dragging them down? We shall see in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Thanks to all 338Canada readers, and thank you for sharing this page if you enjoy this blog.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 8 March 2019

A Warning About Ipsos/Global News Poll From Earlier This Week

The Ipsos / Global News poll released Tuesday is the only one of four polls this week to measure the Conservatives at 40% and the NPD at 20%, recent highs for both parties. I'll write it again and repeat it: watch out for aberrant numbers. They make good clicks, but rarely represent reality.

Nevertheless, polls are statistical sets that contain noise, so it is quite normal for some numbers to come out of the current averages and spreads, especially with the current turbulence in Ottawa.

In the Global News article, the CEO of Ipsos says the CPC has taken a considerable lead in 905 region and could, with these numbers, sweep this crucial region.

Really?

Here is a direct quote:

"Crucially, the Tories enjoy a leadership in the vote-rich 905 region surrounding Toronto. "The Conservatives have over 20-point lead in the 905," said Bricker. "With that kind of lead, they're set to sweep the 905. If they sweep the 905, they probably win the election." 

In Ipsos' tables (you can find them here), it is written that the Conservatives are in the lead in Ontario with 40% of decided voters, with only 31% supporting the Liberals.

The unweighted Ontario sample is 288 respondents. With such a small subsample, the margin of error for a probabilistic survey would be about ±5.5%.

The 905 region contains about one-quarter of Ontario's total population (eg, 28 seats out of 121).

So, what would be the Ipsos sample for the 905? Somewhere between 65 and 80 respondents? With 80 respondents, the margin of error explodes to almost ±11%. Even if Ipsos had collected 100 respondents from 905 (and then weighted the results), the margin of error for such a sample would still be ±9.5%.

Admittedly, the margins of error given above are only valid for random samples and therefore do not apply to internet panels. Nevertheless, the results of internet panels still contain uncertainty!

So unless the CEO of Ipsos has figures that he has not published or shared with the public (which is possible), he can not at all declare such statements with such certainty.

But hey, it generates a lot of clicks.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 6 March 2019

Hold the Narrative: Nanos Measures a Tie, Innovative LPC Still Ahead, Abacus Data CPC on Top

This is a test for political observers. A test of honesty.

In the midst of turbulent times in Ottawa, when allegations of misconduct show up in the news, political partisans tend to show their colours with even more conspicuousness.

We tend to arrive at conclusions that fit our own narrative - and it occurs with partisans of all political stripes.

It also occurs when contradicting polling numbers are published: whom are we to believe? Yesterday, an Ipsos/Global News showed the Conservatives well into majority territory.

But then later that evening, the firm Innovative Research published its new numbers and showed the Liberal still ahead (although not by much):



The weekly tracker from Nanos also was released and it measured a tie between the Conservatives and Liberals (with the Liberals dropping four points in February):





This morning, Abacus Data released its new poll and has the Conservatives ahead by as much as 6 points, thanks to a five point drop of the Liberals:


Polls are coming in so fast I don't have time (I am a full time Cegep teacher) to analyse and break them all down right now.

But I will crunch these numbers in the following days and publish an updated projection on Sunday, as usual.

Expect the CPC to still be in the lead, but the uncertainty to rise.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 5 March 2019

Ipsos/Global News: Conservatives in Majority Territory

Last week, when the Angus Reid Institute published a poll that gave a seven point lead to Andrew Scheer's Conservatives over the Liberals, my first instinct was to urge patience. Noise happens all the time in statistical systems, and we must be careful to not confuse noise and data.

I wrote: "This poll is either the first to detect a new trend or simply an outlier. We'll have to wait and see." (source)

Well, here are the results of the new Ipsos/Global News poll.

Nationally, the Conservative Party of Canada receives 40% of voting intentions, a surge of 4 points since the middle of February when Ipsos was last on the field. Should those numbers reflect accurately the current picture in Canada, it would push the Conservatives well into majority territory.



The Liberal Party of Canada continues to slide and receives 31% of voting intentions. The Global News article mentions that the Liberals are now far behind the Tories in Ontario and have lost ground in the electoral battlefield that is Quebec.

The New Democratic Party stands at 20%, a three point climb for the party of Jagmeet Singh.

The full report of Ipsos' poll has not yet been released, so regional breakdowns are not yet available. More details to come soon.

(This should make the next 338 update on Sunday quite interesting.)




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 3 March 2019

338 Projection Update: Conservatives Edge Grits in Vote, Seat Projections

We add two new polls this week to the 338 Electoral Model:


Also, there were by-elections last Monday, which saw Jagmeet Singh wins his Burnaby South seat, the Conservatives holding on to York-Simcoe, and the Liberals retaking Outremont after twelve years of NDP rule. These by-elections were used to re-calibrate the "water level" in each of these regions.

Here are the federal polls since December 2018:


You can find the complete list on this page.


Here is the 338 Electoral Projection for March 3rd 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada still sits on top of voting intentions with an average of 35.1% support across the country, but, considering the model's uncertainty and the variance of polls, it is still considered a statistical tie with the Liberals



The Liberal Party of Canada slips at 34.0%, its lowest level since the 338 tracker began last fall. Although the House will not sit for a few weeks (leading to the last Budget of the 42nd legislature), we do not know whether the SNC-Lavalin story has fully taken hold yet. The last poll published this week from the Angus Reid Institute was on the field before Jody Wilson-Raybould's testimony.

The New Democratic Party is stable at an average of 13.7%. With its leader finally elected, it will be interesting to see whether an increase in visibility and notoriety will help or hurt Jagmeet Singh. But, from a purely historical basis, it's hard to imagine the NDP sinking any lower.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projections


As it was the case last week, we still have a statistical tie on top of the seat projections, with the Conservative Party of Canada holding a slight edge at an average of 153 seats.



Not far behind, the Liberal Party of Canada wins an average of 147 seats, a vast majority of those seats east of Winnipeg.

Here are the seat probability densities of the LPC and CPC:




The New Democratic Party remains stable and wins an average of 19 seats (NDP projection page):





The Bloc québécois, with an average popular vote of 19% in Quebec, is currently projected at 13.5 seats. (BQ projection page)


The Green Party of Canada wins an average of 4 seats, all of them in British Columbia.





Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With these numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in 54% of all 250k simulations. The CPC wins a majority of seats (threshold at 170 seats) in 23% of simulations.



The Liberals win the most seats in 45% of simulations, and a majority in 18%.

A seat total tie between the Conservatives and Liberals occurs in 0.8% of simulations.


Regional Distribution


The complete map of the projection has been updated and can be viewed here.



You can find your home districts using this list:


New numbers will be published this week. As usual, you'll find analysis on this blog and a complete update next Sunday.

Thank you all for supporting this project. Have a great week!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 1 March 2019

Angus Reid Institute: Conservatives Surge to 7 Point Lead Over Liberals

Published in the middle of my post by-election analysis, a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute went (almost) unnoticed earlier this week.

The poll was conducted from February 21st to 24th by an internet panel of 1,003 Canadian voters and shows a 7 point lead for Andrew Scheer's Conservatives over the Liberals:



Now, as it is the case with every poll that shows results way outside the mean, we have to use caution. Some of the sub-samples of this poll seem quite strange, especially Quebec with the Liberals tied with the Conservatives at 24% each. Every other polling firm has the Liberals way ahead in Quebec, often as much as 20 points ahead.

This poll is either the first to detect a new trend or simply an outlier. We'll have to wait and see.

So we add this poll to the pile. Full projection update on Sunday.


* * *

Here is Angus Reid's full report.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.