Sunday, 31 March 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Liberals Nosedive, CPC in Majority Territory

We interrupt this coverage of the Alberta general election campaign (338 Alberta page here) for this update on the federal horserace, which has tilted heavily against the governing Liberals in the past eight weeks.

We add three new polls to the 338 electoral model this week:
(*Please note the Ipsos/Global News poll did not include neither the Greens nor the PPC in its tables. Data from other polling firms suggest those two parties regularly poll a combined 8-12% of decided voters.)

(**A Mainstreet Research federal poll was published this morning, but it came too late to be included in this week's projection. It will be added to the model for next week's projection.)

The complete list of federal polls can be found on this page.

Here is the 338 Federal Projection Update for March 31st 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada climbs again this week, while the Liberals continue their slide. On average, the CPC support stands at 37.1%.


Just when we thought the LPC had perhaps hit its floor... This week's 338 Projection gives the Liberal Party of Canada an average of 30.7%, down a point and a half from last week.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projection


Unsurprisingly, the Conservative Party of Canada would now be the clear favourite to win the most seats should an election be held this spring. The CPC's average is up more than 10 seats this week only and reaches 176 seats, slightly above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.



Here are the probability densities of the CPC and LPC's seat projections:


As the Liberals fall, the NDP climbs. The NDP average reaches now 30 seats:


In Quebec, the Bloc québécois remains stable at 13 seats on average (with 18.5% support in the province):


The Green Party of Canada also remains stable at an average of four seats:




Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Conservatives win the most seats in more than nine out of ten simulations (92.3%). What a turnout in such a short span of time. In the January 20th 2019 projection, barely two months ago, the Liberals won more than three quarters of simulations.






Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.





Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Federal politics will take a back seat for the next four weeks as Alberta entered its 30th general election campaign earlier last week. Albertans will go to the polls on April 16th. If Alberta politics is of any interest to you, allow me to invite you to visit 338 Alberta's page, where you can find provincial projections, district projections and, of course, a complete interactive map.

Thank you for supporting this page. Have a great week.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 30 March 2019

New Alberta Poll. Really.

This was tweeted this afternoon by Gil McGowan, President of the Alberta Federation of Labour:


Here are the regional breakdowns:


EKOS is a reputable polling firm, and I have no reason to doubt its result or methodology. But, as per 338 policy, this poll will be added to the 338 Alberta model only when the complete report is made available.

Stay tuned.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

338 Alberta Projection Update: UCP 62, NDP 24, AP 1

There is an important election campaign going on in Alberta, a province of more than 4 million Canadians. A province, not unlike Quebec, that rightly doesn't hesitate to throw its weight around within the Confederation.

And on April 16th, Albertan voters will have to choose between two radically different candidates for Premier: Rachel Notley, whose leadership propelled the Alberta NDP to a surprise first electoral victory, and Jason Kenney, former minister of the Stephen Harper cabinet in Ottawa for several years.

So maybe somebody should warn the pollsters?

Polling firms in Canada have been MIA since the writ was drawn up on March 19th. Save for Mainstreet Research* paywalled polling tracker, there has been no publicly available polls as of this writing.

[*A word on Mainstreet Research: Albertans probably still have the memory of the Calgary mayoral election fresh on their minds, along with Mainstreet's prediction that mayor Naheed Nenshi would lose. It was one big fuck up. Mainstreet Research went through a review process with an independent panel - which I was a part of, along with polling expert Claire Durand of Université de Montréal. We made recommandations. Mainstreet made changes. People were fired.

Also, it was October 2017.

Since then, Mainstreet has correctly called the PCPO leadership race in Ontario, correctly called the Ontario general election, and made several accurate riding polls in Quebec last fall. So those who say they'll never believe Mainstreet's numbers because of Calgary: you are of course well within your rights, but you have lost sight of the big picture.

I am suspicious of all polls because of the nature of statistics and, in the case of Mainstreet, because of the risks they are willing to take. Mayoral elections and riding polls are much different animals than provincial or national polls. I for one choose to not throw the baby out with the bath water.]


Hence, because of the scarcity of data available (as opposed to the federal race), there is still high uncertainty in the Alberta vote and seat projections. Hopefully, more data will be published in the remaining 17 days of this campaign.

Here is the 338 Alberta Projection update for March 30th.



Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party still leads the NDP by double digits with an average of 51.1% of voting intentions, mostly unchanged in the past week.


While Rachel Notley's NDP gained about three points in the first week of the campaign, its numbers have been mostly flat in the past 7 days, and so the NDP now stands at an average of 36.6%.

The Alberta Party has an average support of 5.9% and is projected to win only one seat, most likely Calgary-Elbow.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:



Seat Projection


With such support across Alberta, the UCP wins an average of 62.4 seats over the 250k simulations ran by the 338 model.



The NDP wins an average of 23.6 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats.

Here are the seat probability densities for the UCP and NDP*:



By rounding out the seat projection averages for each party, here is what the Legislative Assembly of Alberta could look like should those numbers hold all the way to the ballot boxes:






Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With such broad support, the UCP wins the most seats in 99% of all simulations.

Here is the probability density of the seat difference between the NDP and the UCP:



(*Why are there "gaps" in the graph above? The Alberta Party wins one seat in most simulations, leaving 86 for both the UCP and the NDP. When the sum of two numbers is an even number [in this case: 86], those two numbers are automatically both even or both odd. Since the difference of two odd numbers or two even numbers is always an even number, the odd number columns are much shorter - meaning less probable).



Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:


New updates coming soon. Full federal projection update tomorrow.

Have a great Saturday. Thank you for supporting this page.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 29 March 2019

Ipsos/Global News, Angus Reid Polls: Trouble Ahead for the Liberals, Conservatives in Majority Territory

Two more federal polls were published yesterday and both indicate that the governing Liberals could be in deep trouble.

First, the Angus Reid Institute was on the field from March 11th to 25th, an abnormally long field span, but managed to amass a substantial sample of 5807 respondents. Here are the results of decided and leaning voters. (See full report here.)

The Conservative Party of Canada leads the way with 37%. Such a support in October would assuredly translate into a conservative win, although a majority would still be uncertain. According to Angus Reid's numbers, the CPC leads in every region of the country, except Quebec where there is a statistical tie between the CPC and the LPC.




The Liberal Party of Canada falls to only 28% of respondents. The LPC trails the CPC by 4 points in both the Atlantic provinces and Ontario, and a staggering 13 points in British Columbia.



Second, Global News pulbished a new Ipsos poll that shows similar tendencies as Angus Reid. Ipsos was on the field from March 25th to 27th and has an internet panel sample size of 1002 potential voters.

According to Ipsos, the Conservative Party of Canada get the support of 40% likely voters ten points in front of the Liberals which stand at 30%. Should such numbers hold until October, it would most likely push the CPC above the 170 seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons.



Edit: here is the Ipsos full report.

Note that, according to the Global News article, neither the Green Party of Canada nor the People's Party has been included in the poll - which is a shame. Global wrote that "other parties" received support from only 4% of respondents, which, honestly, feels a little off considering the GPC and the PPC regularly get around 10% combined in polls from other firms.

* * *

We add those new polls to the 338Canada electoral model. A full federal update will be published Sunday, as per usual.

Have a great Friday.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 27 March 2019

338 Alberta Update: UCP 64, NDP 22, AP 1

The first week of the Alberta general election campaign is now behind us, and still very little data on voting intentions has been published. You can find the list of Alberta polls on this page. Note that the Mainstreet Research Alberta tracker terms forbid reproduction of its numbers (they are behind a paywall), but they are included in this projection.

Here is the 338 Alberta Projection for March 27th 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party still leads the NDP by double digits with an average of 50.8% of voting intentions. It appears, at least for now, that the UCP has consolidated most of the PC and WRP support from 2015.

Rachel Notley's NDP gained three points in the past week and now stands at an average of 35.5% (up from 32,3% last week). The road to reelection still looks bleak for the Alberta NDP, most of its support being concentrated in Edmonton and some parts of Calgary. Most of the NDP gains this week appear to come from the smaller parties.

The Alberta Party has an average support of 5.4% and is projected to win only one seat, most likely Calgary-Elbow.


Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:







Seat Projection


With such support across Alberta, the UCP wins an average of 64.5 seats over the 250k simulations ran by the 338 model.


The NDP wins an average of 21.6 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats.

Here are the seat probability densities for the UCP and NDP*:









(*Why is the UCP average rounded down from 64.5 to 64 and not 65? If we round and add all three averages, we get 88 seats. The seat total has to be 87. Therefore, we round down the average with the smallest first digit, which is the UCP's.)



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


With such broad support, the UCP wins the most seats in more than 98% of all simulations. Here is the probability density of the seat difference between the NDP and the UCP:



(Why are there "gaps" in the graph above? The Alberta Party wins one seat in most simulations, leaving 86 for both the UCP and the NDP. When the sum of two numbers is an even number [in this case 86], those two numbers are automatically both even or both odd. Since the difference of two odd numbers or two even numbers is always an even number, the odd number columns are much shorter - meaning less probable).


Find Your District



The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New updates coming soon. Have a great Wednesday!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 24 March 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: CPC Takes Four Point Lead Over Libs

We add two new polls to the 338 model this week:

The complete list of polls can be found here.

Here is the 338 Federal Projection Update for March 24th 2019.

Popular Vote Projection


The Conservative Party of Canada holds its biggest lead since the beginning of the 338 tracker began last fall. On average, the CPC support stands at 36.2%.


Where will the Liberals' slide stop? The Léger/Canadian Press poll measured LPC support as low as 31%, which is its lowest level since before the 2015 election. This week's 338 projection gives the Liberal Party of Canada an average of 32.3%.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projection


Very little movement i the seat projection this week, as the CPC climbs ever so slowly closer to the majority mark of 170 seats. The Conservative average is now up to 164 seats.


Here are the seat projections for the main parties since the fall of 2018:





Odds of Winning the Most Seats


The Conservatives win the most seats in 75.7% of all 250k simulations, or about three in four simulations.







Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 projection has been updated. Click on the image to visit the map's page.



Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Federal politics will take a back seat for the next four weeks as Alberta entered its 30th general election campaign earlier last week. Albertans will go to the polls on April 16th. If Alberta politics is of any interest to you, allow me to invite you to visit 338 Alberta's page, where you can find provincial projections, district projections and, of course, a complete interactive map.

Thank you for supporting this page. Have a great week.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 23 March 2019

338 Alberta Update: UCP 65, NDP 21, AP 1

Polls released by Leger and Mainstreet Research (paywalled) last week have showed that while the Alberta Election is still Jason Kenney's to lose, Rachel Notley's NDP has somewhat improved its support since the beginning of winter (you can access the list of polls on this page).

However, it does not (yet) translate into many more seats for the NDP.

Here is an update for the 338 Alberta Projection (read the first projection here).


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party is projected at 50.8% of the popular vote according to the weight average of polls (as calculated by the 338 model). Earlier this week, both Leger and Mainstreet measured UCP support at 47%, bringing its average down a few points.

Rachel Notley's NDP is currently projected at an average of 36.5%, about five points down from its 2015 election result.

Here are the 95% confidence intervals:





Seat Projection


The UCP wins an average of 65 seats, 21 seats above the threshold for a majority at the Alberta Legislature.

Here are the seat projections with 95% confidence intervals. If you find these confidence intervals ridiculously large, you would be correct: both the scarcity of data and the fact that recent polls have moved the needle quite a bit in the voting intentions increase dramatically the uncertainty in the seat projections (if new polls are published next week and confirm the latest numbers, the uncertainty will be reduced, naturally).


The NDP wins an average of 21 seats. Even though its projection ticked up somewhat since the writ was dropped last week, the road ahead is still incredibly steep for the NDP.

Here are the seat projection probability densities:




Here are preliminary maps of Calgary and Edmonton (still in the works):






Find Your District



The 338 Alberta page has been updated. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New updates coming soon. Stay tuned.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Thursday, 21 March 2019

338 Alberta: Massive Advantage For the UCP At the Starting Line

This is a preliminary projection for the 30th Alberta General Election. There will be significant adjustments in the following days as new polls will be published. Also, the list of candidates running in the 87 electoral districts of Alberta is not yet complete. When it is, the 338 model will take it into account.

Data has been scarce in the past month on the voting intentions of Albertan voters. News polls from Lethbridge College and Ipsos have been published in the last month. Fresh new numbers will come out very soon. Mainstreet Research will conduct a daily poll tracker behind a paywall. To register, follow this link.

The complete list of polls will be updated regularly on this page.


Popular Vote Projection


The United Conservative Party of Alberta begins this election campaign with a massive lead over the governing NDP, with the support of a little more than half Albertan voters, 51.1%.

Rachel Notley's NDP stands at 32.3%, about nine points lower than the result of the 2015 Alberta election. According to the current projection, the NDP is trailing in every region of Alberta, except Edmonton, where the NDP and UCP are in a statistical tie.


The Alberta Party get 7.7%. The AP projection will undergo important adjustments in the coming days, since it slate of candidate is rather different than the one from 2015.


Here are the popular vote projection with 95% confidence intervals:






Seat Projection


With such levels of support, the UCP wins, on average, a staggering 71 seats (out of 87). The threshold for a majority is at 44 seats, so it is quite an understatement to say that the UCP enjoys a massive advantage at the starting line of this campaign.



Here are the probability densities for the UCP and the NDP. As you can see, the curves do not overlap, meaning the UCP wins virtually every single simulation the model performs:




By rounding the seat projection averages to the closest unit, Here is what the Alberta Legislature could look like next month should those numbers hold:






Find Your District


The 338 Alberta page is now ready, even though new features should be published in the coming days and weeks. You can find your electoral district by clicking the following links:



New update coming soon. Stay tuned.

Happy campaign to all.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.

Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 19 March 2019

Nanos Weekly Tracker: CPC 36%, LPC 33%, NDP 20%

The Nanos Weekly Tracker has been updated. Since this rolling polls adds a sample of 250 voters per week, we now have a complete sample of 1000 voters taken since the beginning of the SNC-Lavalin affair. This poll spans from February 15th to March 15th.

Here are the results:

The Conservative Party of Canada gained four points in the past month and sits at 36% nationally. The CPC leads in all Western provinces (although BC is a statistical tie) and is tied with the Liberals in Ontario.



The Liberal Party of Canada dropped 5 points since the saga began and falls to 33%. The results from both the CPC and the LPC are in line with the latest 338 projection (which you can find here).

The NDP, maybe surprisingly, also climbs significantly according to Nanos and gets the support of 20% of respondents. If this level of support is confirmed, it could mean the NDP actually got a boost from the election of Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby South. The NDP could also be benefitting from the Liberals' handling of the SCN-Lavalin affair.

It's budget day in Ottawa. New numbers coming soon.


* * *

A link to the Nanos report will be added shortly.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.