Here are all the national polls from the last twelve months. The complete list is available here.
Popular Vote Projection
Again this week, we have a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives on top of voting intentions:
Here are the popular vote intentions with 95% confidence interval brackets:
We still have a significant overlap between the Liberals and Conservatives for the seat projections. The threshold for a majority is 170 seats.
Here are the seat projections per party:
- Liberal Party of Canada;
- Conservative Party of Canada;
- New Democratic Party;
- Bloc québécois;
- Green Party of Canada;
- People's Party of Canada.
Odds of Winning the Most Seats
The Liberals win the most seats in two thirds of all 100k simulations. The Conservatives win the remaining third.
The complete map of this projection has been updated. Click here to visit the interactive map.
All 338 district projections are now available on 338Canada.com. To find your home district, use this list:
- Atlantic Provinces, 32 districts
- Newfoundland and Labrador, 7 districts
- Prince Edward Island, 4 districts
- Nova Scotia, 11 districts
- New Brunswick, 10 districts
- Québec, 78 districts
- Island of Montreal, 18 districts
- Laval & 450, 22 districts
- Quebec City & Chaudière-Appalaches, 11 districts
- Centre of Quebec & Eastern Townships, 8 districts
- Laurentides-Lanaudières-Mauricie, 6 districts
- Western Quebec, 5 districts
- Eastern & Northern Quebec, 8 districts
- Ontario, 121 districts
- Toronto, 25 districts
- GTA-905, 28 districts
- Ottawa, 8 districts
- Eastern Ontario, 8 districts
- Hamilton-Niagara, 12 districts
- Southwestern Ontario, 21 districts
- Centre of Ontario, 9 districts
- Northern Ontario, 10 districts
- Prairies, 28 districts
- Winnipeg, 8 districts
- Rest of Manitoba, 6 districts
- Southern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Northern Saskatchewan, 7 districts
- Alberta, 34 districts
- Edmonton, 11 districts
- Calgary, 10 districts
- Northern Alberta, 7 districts
- Southern Alberta, 6 districts
- British Columbia, 42 districts
- Greater Vancouver, 22 districts
- Victoria & Vancouver Island, 6 districts
- East/Rockies, 9 districts
- Northern BC, 5 districts
- Territories, 3 districts
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.
Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.