Wednesday, 17 July 2019

Ipsos/Global News: CPC 37, LPC 31, NDP 18, GPC 7, BQ 5

A new Ipsos/Global News poll has been published this morning, and it shows that voting intentions in Canada have remained stable in the last month - contrary to the general trend detected by other Canadian pollsters in the same time period.

The full tables have not yet been released (I expect they will in the next day or so), but here is the article from Global News. (I must warn you: this article is a somewhat confusing. It goes from party standings to leader's approval numbers back and forth and throws a bunch or regional and demographic numbers in what looks like random order).

Here are the results at the national level:



Every party is stable compared to Ipsos' previous poll back in June. The main difference is that the Greens and the PPC were included this time (which explains the +7 for the Greens).

While it is not surprising to see Ipsos give the Conservatives the lead (CPC has led every Ipsos poll since February, even by a ten-point margin back in March), it is strange that Ipsos has not seen the gap narrowed one bit like other pollsters.

The most header-scratching data however is that fact that Ipsos has the Conservatives leading among women. This is highly inconsistent - even Angus Reid latest poll, which has similar overall numbers to Ipsos - has the Liberals leading among women.

Nevertheless, the regional numbers that were presented in the article are all within current ranges, with the notable exception of Ontario - where Ipsos has the CPC ahead by 6 points.

Still, as I wrote yesterday: "We have to look at the movement of the tide, not just the water level... and not overreact."

We add this one to the pile and carry on.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 16 July 2019

Look at the Tide Movement, Not Just the Water Level

At the end of the latest 338 federal projection published on Sunday, I wrote: "As we enter the middle of summer, Canadian pollsters will probably take a much-needed break before the fall campaign".

This may have been just a little bit of wishful thinking on my part.

Five new federal polls, yes five, were published in the last 24 hours from five different polling firms: Angus Reid, Nanos, Campaign Research, Innovative Research, and EKOS.

The full tables for Innovative and EKOS have not been made public just yet, so we will hold on to these two for now, but let's take a quick look at the other three.


(All federal polls are listed on this page.)


Nanos Research



The Nanos weekly tracker has been updated and it doubles down on the Liberal-comeback narrative. The LPC leads the way with 36% of voting intentions, up six points from the middle of June. The Conservatives, which Nanos measured as high as 36% last May, lose four points in the past four weeks and stand at 30% nationally.



The New Democratic Party climbs again this week according to Nanos and now stands at 19% - which is somewhat higher than the current polling average for Jagmeet Singh's party.



Angus Reid Institute


The Angus Reid Institute had the Conservatives with a 13-point lead in May, and an 11-point lead in June. Its latest poll still has the Conservatives ahead, but the gap has been closing to 8 points. The CPC leads with 38% and the Liberals come second with 30%. (See Angus Reid report here.)





Campaign Research


Finally, Campaign Research has a statistical tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with 33% and 32% of national support, respectively. The most notable movement in this poll compared to Campaign's previous poll in June is the Conservatives shedding three points.




What are we to make of all there numbers? Whereas Campaign Research's numbers align closely with the current 338 weighted average, Nanos' and Angus Reid's numbers diverge significantly.

Taken alone, Nanos' numbers would probably mean a strong minority or even perhaps a majority for the Liberals.

Taken alone, Angus Reid's would assuredly lead to the Conservative winning the most seats, although perhaps not enough for a majority.

However, if we look at the movement detected by these polls and not just the raw numbers, we all have the same tendency: a tightening race.

I published in May a brief meta-analysis of Canadian polls from the past three years, as well as those just before the 2015 federal election (which you can find here). While Nanos tends to very modestly lean liberal compared to the overall polling average, it was near perfect in its final 2015 poll. On the other hand, Angus Reid has had the Liberals much lower than other pollsters on average in the past three years, and had also underestimated the Liberals by almost five points in 2015. I do not, and I repeat, do not dismiss Angus Reid, but every polling firm occasionally displays a "House Effect"*. Angus Reid is no exception.

*Displaying a house effect does not mean the skew is intentional. Whatever the narrative you want to believe: no, it's not a conspiracy.

Again, remember: we have to look at the movement of the tide, not just the water level.

And not give too much weight to a single poll.

And not overreact.

* * *

All these numbers will be added to the model for this Sunday's 338 update. Have a great week, and thank you for supporting 338Canada.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 14 July 2019

338Canada Federal Projection Update: All Bets Are Off

Fresh new data was published last week, and it should certainly concern conservative strategists, as it appears that the Liberal slump from the SNC-Lavalin story and the CPC as the election-favourite narrative have all but vanished.

Read this article on Maclean's.ca

(The graph above depicts this week's projection with the latest national polls; MS: Mainstreet; NR: Nanos Research.)


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 9 July 2019

Mainstreet Research: Liberals 35, Conservatives 33, NDP 10, Greens 10

Who said politics takes a break in July?

Mainstreet Research has published its latest poll on iPolitics on Tuesday. Mainstreet had not been on the field since late March, near the zenith of the SNC-Lavalin story that engulfed Canadian media for most of the winter/spring.

This new poll has a sample size of 2,651 respondents and was on the field from June 28th to July 2nd 2019. Let's take a look at the national figures:



The Liberals lead the way with 35%, a level of support similar to what Nanos published Tuesday morning. According to Mainstreet, the Liberals remain stable compared to their March number.

The biggest slide goes to the Conservatives, falling to 33% nationally  - but especially (again) in Ontario where they trail the Liberals by 10 points.

However, considering the poll's margin of error, this 2-point lead for the Liberals on the national level means we have a statistical tie between the LPC and the CPC.

A more in-depth analysis will be published later this week, but simply stated: there is no path to victory for Andrew Scheer if the Conservatives are 10 points behind the Liberals in Ontario. None.

As for Quebec, Mainstreet measures the Conservative at 22%, a result more inline with what other pollsters outside of Nanos have picked up lately.

British Columbia continues to be a mystery. According to Mainstreet, the Conservatives lead with 31%, the Liberals follow with 26%, and the Greens with 22%.

The NDP is far, and I do mean far, behind its regular numbers, with only 10% nationally - 9% in Quebec, 12% in Ontario, and a dismal 14% in B.C.

More to come later this week. Stay tuned.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Nanos July 5th 2019: LPC 35, CPC 30, NDP 18, Greens 9

In the latest 338 federal projection published in Maclean's, I wrote "After a disastrous winter and spring, the Liberals may be creeping back into contention."

Last week, the Nanos weekly tracker had the Liberals in front for the first time since February. I wrote: "More fresh data should come out this week. Is this week's Nanos an outlier? It's possible. We will know soon."

The Nanos tracker was updated a few hours ago, and the Liberal lead has widened:


[Nanos is a four-week tracker. To avoid duplication of data we compare this week's numbers to those from 4 weeks ago.]

A more complete analysis will be needed to understand what's going on here, but it may be that Green leaning voters are tempted to go back to the Liberal fold. The Bloc, NDP and PPC are all relatively stable.

Regionally, the Liberals lead by 9 points in Ontario.

In Quebec, the Liberals still lead, but with less than a third of support.

We have a statistical tie in the Atlantic provinces. Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta.

In B.C., there is a three-way race at the top.

More to come this week.

* * *

The map of the 338 Projection was updated Sunday and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 7 July 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Back to Square One

It's July in Canada, so it's time for BBQ's, pool parties, Festival d'Été de Québec, Festival de Jazz de Montréal, the Calgary Stampede, and so, so much more.

But politics, four months before a general election, does not take a summer break.


Read this article on Macleans.ca.


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Saturday, 6 July 2019

Abacus Data: CPC 33, LPC 32, NDP 16

The Ottawa-based firm Abacus Data released its latest federal horserace numbers this morning, and recent trends detected by the nation's pollsters seem to converge somewhat - at least more than they did during the spring.

Earlier this week, we saw DART measuring the Conservatives ahead by four points, but trailing in Ontario. On Tuesday, Nanos updated its weekly tracker and had the Liberals ahead for the first time since the SNC-Lavalin saga began in February. (All federal polls are listed here.) While Nanos' Liberal number seemed on the higher end of the poll average, the Liberal "recovery" appears to be real - even though, we must point out, the Conservatives are still ahead on the aggregate.

Here are Abacus Data's national numbers published this morning:



The Conservatives and Liberals are in a statistical tie, with the CPC at 33% and the Liberals, 32%. Support for all main parties remains generally stable compared to Abacus' late May numbers.

Because Abacus' sample size is rather large, the regional breakdown does not make the margin of error (or rather, the uncertainty) explode to unreasonable levels. Let's take a look:

  • In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals hold a ten-point lead over the Conservatives (39%-29%). As other pollsters have measured in the past months, the Greens have caught up to the NDP in third place. Although with 15% support in the region, it remains unsure whether the Greens can actually gain new seats. Fredericton may be the most probable Green seat, along with Charlottetown
  • In Quebec, the modest Conservative surge detected a few weeks ago seems to hold up. Abacus has the CPC at 24% in the province, which would be the highest score for federal conservatives since 2006 should it materialize in October. The Liberals still lead in Quebec with 33% of support. The Bloc is at 16%, the Greens at 14% and, this is not a typo, the NDP at a dismal 8%.
  • In Ontario, Abacus has a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives with 34% apiece. Last week, both Forum Research and EKOS measured the Liberals ahead in Ontario (same with Nanos earlier this week), so it seems there is some level of disagreement here.
  • In the Prairies (MB/SK), the Conservatives hold a 14-point lead over the Liberals (40%-26%), which is consistent with current data.
  • In Alberta, unsurprisingly the Conservative hold a massive lead over their rivals with 53% of support, which is on the low end for the CPC in Alberta: other recent polls have measured the Conservatives as high as 60% or even 65%.
  • In British Columbia, the Liberals stand at 32% according to Abacus, the Conservatives 27% and the NDP 23% (the highest NDP score in this poll). The Greens have 15% support. 


And so we have fresh data to update the 338Canada projection tomorrow. It should be published in late afternoon, eastern time.

Enjoy the weekend, and thanks again for supporting this page.


* * *

Here is Abacus Data's full report on the poll. There is a breakdown of voting intention according to age and education levels. It also contains interesting data regarding levels of support for federal party leaders and, as a bonus, Doug Ford.



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Tuesday, 2 July 2019

Nanos Has Liberals Back on Top: LPC 35, CPC 32, NDP 17, Greens 10

The Nanos weekly tracker was updated this morning and it shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives nationally for the first time since the February SNC-Lavalin story. The tracker is a rolling poll that adds a sample of 250 respondents per week for 4 weeks. Every week, the four week old sample is replaced by fresh data, so today's numbers span the four weeks of June (June 7th to 28th 2019).

Here are the numbers:



The Liberals gained six points in June compared to May, and retake the lead over the CPC. The Bloc and NDP are mostly stable, while the Conservatives and Greens lose two points apiece. The poll's results are available here.

The biggest swing is in Ontario, where the Liberals have taken an eight point lead (41-33) according to Nanos. This trend in Ontario was also picked up by EKOS, whose latest numbers in the province had the Liberals ahead by seven points (details here). Nanos' regional breakdown can be found here.

More fresh data should come out this week. Is this week's Nanos an outlier? It's possible. We will know soon.

Sunday's update should be interesting. (Here is the latest 338Canada projection.)





Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 30 June 2019

338Canada: Battleground Ontario is tightening up

The Conservative Party of Canada leads the way and stands at an average support of 35.2 per cent nationally. Although there have been fluctuations in CPC support over the past six months, it appears that the 35-36 per cent mark may be a ceiling for the Conservatives. Their highest 338Canada average since the New Year was 37 per cent in late March at the peak of the SNC-Lavalin story.

In early February, just before the story was first published in the Globe and Mail, the Conservative average stood at 34 per cent, barely one point lower than today's average.

Read this article on Macleans.ca.


Here are the numbers from the EKOS Research poll included in this week's update:


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Thursday, 27 June 2019

Safe, Likely, Leaning, Toss-up - What's the Record So Far?

Many readers and new followers have asked about the "safe", "likely", "leaning" and "toss up" projection labels. I figured I could answer with actual data. Here it is.

* * *

I have covered three provincial elections so far: Ontario (124 districts), Quebec (125) and Alberta (87).

In Ontario, the model identified the right winner in 111 of 124 districts (90%), including all 53 "safe" districts. Out of the 13 wrong winners, 11 were within the margin of error. Only two were complete misses.

In Quebec, the election was quirkier (the CAQ won a majority, the first non-liberal or non-PQ government in my lifetime) and the polls were less precise than they had been in past Quebec elections. Nevertheless, the right winner was identified in 112 districts out of 125 (90%). Out of the 13 wrong winners, four were within the margin of error. Nine were complete misses ("not my fault liberal voters stayed home in Gatineau," I have grudgingly mumbled on a few occasions since).

In Alberta, the right winner was identified in 82 out 87 districts (94%), including all 38 "safe" districts and 29 of 30 "likely" districts. Out of the five wrong winners, three were within the margin of error.

By combining the results of these three election projections, we have the following breakdown:

The model correctly identified the winner in:
  • 98% of "safe" districts;
  • 94% of "likely" districts;
  • 80% of "leaning" districts;
  • 64% of toss-ups.

... for a total success rate of 91% (305 of 336). With such a success rate at the federal level, the model would miss about 30 of 338 districts.

Of course, I aim for perfection, but it is statistically unlikely - and would also require a fair amount of luck. I believe 90% is a fair benchmark.

There will be a full federal projection update on Sunday, as usual. Have a great weekend!



Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Are the Conservatives Making a Breakthrough in Quebec?

The most recent polls that were on the field as Canadians prepared to set their minds on vacation mode showed more of the same basic trends as the last few months: the Liberals have partially recovered from five months of (mostly self-inflicted) negative stories and appear to have stop the bleeding; the Conservatives remained in first place - both in the polls and in the seat projections; and the Greens are slowly creeping up on the NDP for third place in voting intentions.

However, amidst all the numbers that were published, one specific data point caught my eye: Conservative support in Quebec.

Read this article on Macleans.ca.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 23 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: June 23rd 2019

I am on vacation, so this article will be brief. We add two new polls to the 338 federal model this week: the Nanos tracker update and the new EKOS poll.

The complete list of federal polls is available here. Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for June 23rd 2019.


Popular Vote Projection






Seat Projection





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about two thirds of simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model). The CPC wins a majority of seats in one third simulations.





Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Less than four months until the federal election...

Have a great weekend!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 16 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Conservatives Enter Summer As Favourites

The House of Commons will soon adjourn for a summer break that will last until the writ is drawn up in late August or early September. Unless some major and unexpected event occurs, Canadians will head to the polls on October 21st to choose the MPs of the 43rd federal legislature.

There were six new federal polls published in the past seven days. Early last week, Campaign Research (CR), Nanos Research, the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) and Forum Research all released their most recent numbers. Aside from ARI which had the Conservatives with a comfortable 11-point lead over the Liberals, all of these polls showed a fairly close race with the CPC's lead in the 3-4 point range. Then on Friday came two new polls from Ipsos/Global News and Léger/CP whose overall numbers looked quite similar at first (Conservatives leading by 6 and 9 points, respectively), but whose regional breakdown were all over the place.

Read this column on Maclean's website.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 14 June 2019

Is It Summer Yet? New Polls From Léger/CP and Ipsos/Global News

Two new polls this morning (which bring this week's total to six!) from Léger/The Canadian Press and Ipsos/Global News.

Without going into the regional details (it'll come soon), let's take a look at the overall numbers from each.

First, Ipsos/Global News has the Conservatives 6 points ahead of the Liberals:

It is strange that Ipsos still does not include the Green Party in its polls. In The Global News article, they justify this decision as such:

"We have found that, historically, prompting the Green Party as a response option in online polls tends to exaggerate their level of support,” said Sean Simpson, vice president of Ipsos Public Affairs.
"This is because the Green Party will often be chosen by poll respondents who either don’t like any of the other options and are looking for a protest response and/or won’t actually vote on election day." - Global News, June 14th 2019


Secondly, Léger/CP released its own numbers and they also measured a tightening Conservative lead:




The regional numbers from Léger are similar to Angus Reid earlier this week, but there are still major disagreement among the flurry of polls published this week.

More on this on Sunday with a full 338Canada federal update. Expect the overall uncertainty to significantly increase.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Wednesday, 12 June 2019

Feeling Lost With This Week's Polls? Here's Some Help

With Forum Research publishing its latest poll numbers this morning, we now have four new polls published since last Sunday's 338 Federal projection update.

Let's take a quick look at those polls, and see where the last 338's projection stands compared to those polls.

(The complete list of federal polls is available here.)


Angus Reid Institute


The Angus Reid Institute released its numbers on Monday and they showed the Conservatives lead the Liberals by double digits.


With such numbers, the Conservatives would assuredly win a majority government.

However, this poll is a head-scratcher, especially its Quebec numbers where the Conservatives are measured in first place at 28% and the Liberals second with 26%. No other polling firm has the Conservatives in the lead in Quebec. On average in the past six months, the LPC has polled about 10-15 higher in Quebec than the Conservatives. This has "outlier" written all over it.

The other regional numbers look within the current margins though, so it would be unreasonable to just toss this poll out. Naturally, because Quebec is about 24% of Canada's population, having Quebec numbers so off compared to others will affect Angus Reid national numbers.



Campaign Research


On Sunday night, Campaign Research published its new poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by three points over the Liberals.


These numbers are fairly constant compared to when Campaign was last on the field (late April). The biggest shift is one we have seen from other pollsters: the Greens are slowly catching up to the NDP.




Forum Research


After measuring double-digit leads for the Conservatives for the better part of 2018, Forum's new numbers also show a tightening race between the Conservatives and Liberals. The Greens and NDP are tied nationally with 13% apiece.





Nanos Research


Finally, the Nanos Weekly Tracker also has the Conservatives ahead by three points over the Liberals. Nanos still has the NDP comfortably in third place.




In Conclusion



So many polls can be confusing for the uninitiated. Even political journalists can sometimes feel overwhelmed with so much data - and some of it contradictory.

Well, that's why 338Canada is here. Here are the four polls presented above with the numbers from last Sunday's projection:



Click the image to enlarge.


If there were any doubt left that Angus Reid appears to underestimate the Liberals, this graph should help.

Again, while it is not impossible that Angus Reid is correct and that every other polling firm is wrong, it is certainly not the most likely scenario.

That's why one should trust the weighted average more than any single poll, and that, above all, a political poll should always be presented with context - something several media outlets did not do when they published Angus Reid earlier this week.

Yes, La Presse, I am looking at you.

A full 338 update will be published on Sunday, as per usual.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 9 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: June 9th 2019

We add these new polls to the 338 federal model this week:


The complete list of federal polls is available here. Here is the 338Canada Federal Projection Update for June 9th 2019.


Popular Vote Projection






Seat Projection





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model). The CPC wins a majority of seats in 25% of simulations.





Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Only 134 days until the federal election...

Have a great weekend!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Thursday, 6 June 2019

Mainstreet Research/338Canada Poll of Markham-Stouffville

This poll was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was commissioned by 338Canada.com. Mainstreet was on the field from May 29th to 30th 2019 and, using IVR technology, it collected voting intentions of 601 voters residing in the Markham-Stouffville district. This is a probabilistic sample with a margin of error of ±4%.

Here is 338's analysis published by Maclean's.

Here is the poll's full report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.






Monday, 3 June 2019

Exclusive Mainstreet Research/338Canada Poll: Jody WIlson-Raybould Leads in Vancouver Granville

This poll was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was commissioned by 338Canada.com. Mainstreet was on the field from May 29th to 30th 2019 and, using IVR technology, it collected voting intentions of 418 voters residing in the Vancouver Granville district. This is a probabilistic sample with a margin of error of ±5%.

Here is 338's analysis published by Maclean's.

Here is the poll's full report.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Sunday, 2 June 2019

338Canada Federal Projection Update: June 2nd 2019

We add two new polls to the 338 federal model this week: the Nanos weekly update, as well as Abacus Data's fresh new numbers unveiled yesterday.

The model was adjusted to include new independent candidates Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. Some other minor and routine tweaks were also made to the model.
Here is the 338 Federal Update for June 2nd 2019. The full list of polls can be found on this page.

Seat Projection





The complete regional breakdown per party can be found on these pages:



Odds of Winning the Most Seats


According to this week's numbers, the Conservatives win the most seats in about six of ten simulations (from a total of 250k simulations performed by the model).




Regional Distribution


The map of the 338 Projection has been updated and is available on this page. Use this list to find your federal electoral district:

Only 141 days until the federal election... We should see a flurry of new polls before the start of the summer break.

Have a great weekend!




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.