Sunday, 16 June 2019

338 Federal Projection Update: Conservatives Enter Summer As Favourites

The House of Commons will soon adjourn for a summer break that will last until the writ is drawn up in late August or early September. Unless some major and unexpected event occurs, Canadians will head to the polls on October 21st to choose the MPs of the 43rd federal legislature.

There were six new federal polls published in the past seven days. Early last week, Campaign Research (CR), Nanos Research, the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) and Forum Research all released their most recent numbers. Aside from ARI which had the Conservatives with a comfortable 11-point lead over the Liberals, all of these polls showed a fairly close race with the CPC's lead in the 3-4 point range. Then on Friday came two new polls from Ipsos/Global News and Léger/CP whose overall numbers looked quite similar at first (Conservatives leading by 6 and 9 points, respectively), but whose regional breakdown were all over the place.

Read this column on Maclean's website.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.

Friday, 14 June 2019

Is It Summer Yet? New Polls From Léger/CP and Ipsos/Global News

Two new polls this morning (which bring this week's total to six!) from Léger/The Canadian Press and Ipsos/Global News.

Without going into the regional details (it'll come soon), let's take a look at the overall numbers from each.

First, Ipsos/Global News has the Conservatives 6 points ahead of the Liberals:

It is strange that Ipsos still does not include the Green Party in its polls. In The Global News article, they justify this decision as such:

"We have found that, historically, prompting the Green Party as a response option in online polls tends to exaggerate their level of support,” said Sean Simpson, vice president of Ipsos Public Affairs.
"This is because the Green Party will often be chosen by poll respondents who either don’t like any of the other options and are looking for a protest response and/or won’t actually vote on election day." - Global News, June 14th 2019


Secondly, Léger/CP released its own numbers and they also measured a tightening Conservative lead:




The regional numbers from Léger are similar to Angus Reid earlier this week, but there are still major disagreement among the flurry of polls published this week.

More on this on Sunday with a full 338Canada federal update. Expect the overall uncertainty to significantly increase.




Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of Qc125 and 338Canada. He teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. For information or media request, please write to info@Qc125.com.


Philippe J. Fournier est le créateur de Qc125 et 338Canada. Il est professeur de physique et d'astronomie au Cégep de Saint-Laurent à Montréal. Pour toute information ou pour une demande d'entrevue médiatique, écrivez à info@Qc125.com.